宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年12月30日）-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short, medium and intraday terms, with a weak - downward trend in the intraday. The current situation is weak, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Construction steel mills have started to resume production, with continuous but limited increase in output, which is still at a relatively low level. Low supply supports the steel price, but the upward expectation remains unchanged, so subsequent changes should be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling again and remaining at a low level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand continues to decline seasonally, which still puts pressure on the steel price. In general, rebar supply is increasing while demand is seasonally weakening, with a relatively weak fundamental situation. The steel price in the off - season is under continuous pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support, and the steel price is expected to continue the oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].