潮退的寂静，于暮色中等待风起

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation; Soybean oil: Bullish; Palm oil: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the core drivers of the global oil and fat market are the biofuel policies of the United States and Indonesia. The market is expected to see an upward shift in the overall price center, with palm oil being the strongest, rapeseed oil the weakest, and soybean oil in the middle [2]. - The international market focuses on the biofuel policies of the US and Indonesia, while the domestic market focuses on raw material supply and export potential [173][175]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Oil and Fat Market Review - The 2025 oil and fat market was mainly driven by policies, with significant divergence in trends. Palm oil prices fluctuated due to policy delays, weather, and production recovery. Soybean oil followed palm oil, and rapeseed oil had a relatively independent trend, affected by policies related to Canada [14]. 3.2 2026 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Soybean Oil - International Market: The core variable in the global soybean oil market in 2026 is the US biofuel policy. The uncertainty of the policy has led to a lack of market confidence and weak long - position funds. Different scenarios of the policy will have a significant impact on US soybean oil demand, and the global soybean oil supply is expected to be tight if the policy is not the most pessimistic [19][35]. - Domestic Market: The domestic market will continue the pattern of strong supply and demand. The supply of raw materials is expected to be sufficient, and the export of soybean oil may continue to play an important role in influencing domestic prices and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [41]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - International Market: In Malaysia, production is unlikely to reach a new record in 2026, and attention should be paid to the export rhythm. In Indonesia, production may face a slight decline, and the focus is on the biodiesel policy. India's import demand is expected to increase, and the import structure may change [60][61][101][124]. - Domestic Market: The domestic palm oil market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices mainly following international market trends [133]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Oil - International Market: The global rapeseed market in the 2025/26 season is in a pattern of abundant production and loose supply - demand. Canada's rapeseed export may decline, the EU's import demand will decrease, and Australia may increase its supply to China [139][144][156]. - Domestic Market: The focus is on whether China will resume the purchase of Canadian rapeseed or rapeseed oil and whether the import of Australian rapeseed can be commercialized. The price of domestic rapeseed oil will be significantly affected by policies [159]. 3.3 Market Judgment and Strategy Suggestions - International Market: The focus in 2026 is on the biofuel policies of the US and Indonesia. The supply of palm oil is stronger than that of soybean oil, which is stronger than that of rapeseed oil. The demand is mainly determined by the biofuel policies of the US and Indonesia. It is expected that US soybean oil will be stronger than palm oil, which is stronger than Canadian rapeseed oil [173]. - Domestic Market: In terms of supply, the strength order is palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil; in terms of demand, it is soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. Based on the benchmark scenario, the strength order of the oil and fat market in 2026 is expected to be palm oil > soybean oil > rapeseed oil [175].