原料补库预期，钢价震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and thermal coal are all in a state of volatile operation. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, raw material replenishment expectations, and seasonal and policy - related factors [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,287 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume was average, with better low - price purchases during the morning price increase, increased speculative sentiment, and weaker trading in the afternoon. The basis first narrowed and then widened throughout the day, and the national building materials trading volume was 117,700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have no obvious contradictions, maintaining low production, low consumption, and low inventory. Plates are still restricted by high inventories, with limited marginal price fluctuations. In the short term, there are expectations of raw material replenishment in the market. Attention should be paid to environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, demand and inventory reduction, profit status, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose slightly, trading was average, traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand replenishment, with purchase prices mostly following the market [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand pattern continues to tighten. Port inventories have increased significantly, but downstream procurement demand is weak. Due to limited liquidity of some port supplies and market concerns about future actual supply, iron ore prices are supported by a relatively high valuation. If relevant negotiations make clear progress, potential supply - demand contradictions may emerge, and prices may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and changes in port inventory structure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile pattern throughout the day, and the main contracts of both closed slightly lower. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the quotations fluctuated with the market. The market is cautiously waiting and watching [5] Logic and View - As the end of the year approaches, the demand for capital repatriation increases, and speculative demand declines. For coking coal, the output of some coal mines has decreased, and with the stable customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal, the overall supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday downstream replenishment rhythm. For coke, the overall supply is stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is average. On the demand side, the current absolute value of hot metal production is low, and the post - holiday blast furnace restart is expected to further drive the increase in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of steel mills and changes in hot metal production [5][6] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the supply of major coal - producing areas is tight due to factors such as the completion of annual production and sales tasks and face - moving operations. Coal mine inventories are generally low, and the sales of operating coal mines are good, with prices set according to the number of vehicles. In the short term, prices are expected to change little. At ports, the downward trend in the port market continues, but the decline has narrowed, and port inventories have decreased due to factors such as reduced shipments. Currently, downstream consumption has increased month - on - month, and with the expected impact of cold snaps in the future, market inquiries have increased, and demand is gradually improving. However, although inventories have declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and the later market consumption situation needs to be observed. For imported coal, the price difference between domestic and foreign trade is inverted, and the decline in the imported coal market has also narrowed, with both high - and low - calorie coal prices falling [7] Demand and Logic - Recently, coal prices have changed from weak to strong, and downstream consumption has improved. Due to coal mines completing their annual tasks, it is difficult for supply to improve significantly in the later stage. Attention should also be paid to the consumption situation affected by factors such as weather in January. The supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and inventory replenishment [7] Strategy - None [7]