新能源及有色金属日报：去库持续现货升贴水坚挺-20251230
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-30 05:05

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Core View - Social inventory continues to decline, spot premium performs well, and the premium in East China has increased significantly. The domestic zinc smelting loss has expanded, and the supply pressure has decreased. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. There is optimism about future consumption, the expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$28.26 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,440 yuan per ton, with a premium of 130 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,380 yuan per ton, with a premium of -5 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,340 yuan per ton, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [2] - Futures: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,105 yuan per ton and closed at 23,255 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 242,907 lots, and the open interest was 93,687 lots. The highest price was 23,470 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,000 yuan per ton [3] - Inventory: As of December 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,550 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Social inventory is declining, and the spot premium is strong, especially in East China. Downstream buyers are purchasing on a need - to - basis due to high prices, and market trading is sluggish. The import window for zinc ore has opened, and the enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. The zinc ingot export window is closed. The comprehensive smelting loss of domestic smelters has expanded, and supply pressure has decreased [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6]