公募战略：新秩序下的格局重塑

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the diversified financial sector [2] Core Insights - The public fund industry is undergoing a systematic and high-quality transformation, shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a focus on long-term returns, driven by regulatory reforms and market dynamics [4][13] - By 2030, the total AUM (Assets Under Management) in the industry is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, with growth primarily fueled by deeper financial asset allocation by residents and the acceleration of long-term capital inflows [8][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The public fund industry has seen a significant transformation since 2023, with reforms focusing on fee reductions, performance benchmarks, and management practices, leading to a restructuring of the operational logic from scale to long-term returns [4][5] Reform Progress - The reforms initiated in 2023 have transitioned from cost constraints to a comprehensive restructuring of the investment research, sales, assessment, and product logic, with a focus on investor returns [5][17] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue of the public fund industry decreased from 262.5 billion yuan in 2021 to approximately 200 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 21% decline due to fee reductions and changes in trading behavior [6][27] - The average management fee and trading commission rates have significantly declined, with management fees remaining the core revenue source but showing a decreasing contribution from actively managed equity funds [6][15] Asset Growth and Structure - As of Q3 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36.09 trillion yuan, a 12% increase from the beginning of the year, with the proportion of public funds to GDP rising from 7% in 2014 to 27% in 2025 [7][36] - The growth in the industry is primarily driven by equity and money market funds, with a notable increase in the share of industry and thematic ETFs [7][14] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that passive investment, particularly through ETFs, will continue to dominate the industry, while active management will focus on boutique strategies to achieve sustainable alpha [8][16] - The integration of AI technology across the investment research, trading, sales, and risk control processes is expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading firms [8][16]