原油端反弹受阻，低硫油出口配额下发

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil price rebound is blocked, the expectation of oil market oversupply remains unchanged, and the short - term oversold rebound cannot form an upward trend, so the cost - side support for FU and LU is weak [2] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, with limited overall driving force [2] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the marginal improvement in refinery demand has led to a recent increase in China's imports, but the supply is still abundant [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply increase in Kuwait and Nigeria, and the short - term market pressure may be limited. The first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas in 2026 has been issued, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm is still limited [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.76% at 2,459 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.62% at 2,974 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3]