上半月运价相对坚挺，关注马士基1月下半月第一周报价-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in the first half of January were relatively strong, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the second half of January [1] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Standard Contract for Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [2] - The EC2602 contract follows Maersk's freight rates in the second week of January, and the 02 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The current focus is whether the first half of January is the end of this round of freight rate increases [4] - Far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards [5][6] - The strategy suggests a sideways trend for the 12 - month contract and a moderately strong sideways trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 29, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1822.90, EC2604 at 1169.90, EC2606 at 1374.00, EC2608 at 1497.70, EC2610 at 1054.70, and EC2512 at 1604.80. The total open interest of all container freight index (European line) futures contracts is 62,906.00 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 33,246.00 lots [7] II. Spot Price - On December 26, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1690 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2188 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3033 US dollars/FEU. On December 29, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In January, the average weekly capacity was 306,200 TEU, and in February, it was 274,500 TEU. In January, there were 3 blank sailings and 1 TBN, and in February, there were 7 TBNs and 4 blank sailings [3] - In 2025, 260 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.103 million TEU. As of December 28, 2025, 78 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.175 million TEU, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [7] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume navigation in 2026, which may increase the effective supply of capacity and put downward pressure on freight rates [5][6] - Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since January 2024 on December 19, 2025, marking its tentative resumption of the Red Sea route [6] V. Demand and European Economy - The freight volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year [4] - The progress of long - term contract signing by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term contracts around 1800 US dollars/FEU [4]