化工日报：青岛港口库存继续回升-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, while BR is rated cautiously bullish [11] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the weakening of RU basis and small fluctuations in NR basis indicate poor demand for full latex. The widening of the RU-NR spread is related to the domestic harvest suspension and the overseas peak season. The weak follow - up of RU spot prices may suppress the upward space of futures prices. With limited fundamental changes, domestic harvest suspension, and strong cost support, but insufficient supply - demand drivers, the domestic market will continue to accumulate inventory [11] - For cis - butadiene rubber, with some upstream plants under maintenance, supply is expected to remain abundant. During the New Year's Day holiday, downstream tire operating rates may decline. Although there is a short - term inventory accumulation pressure, the cost support from upstream butadiene is expected to keep the price of cis - butadiene rubber strong [11] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,665 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced full latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import Volume - In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Supply and Demand - According to the ANRPC November 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in November was expected to drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to drop 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] Tire Market - The semi - steel all - season tire market had relatively sufficient supply, with the market mainly digesting previous inventory and the shipment rhythm slowing down. There was a shortage of some specifications, but weak demand suppressed the purchasing sentiment. The semi - steel snow tire channels had sufficient inventory and were in the terminal inventory reduction stage, waiting for more snowfall to release replacement demand. Overall, the market transactions were dull, and prices were weak [2] Vehicle Sales - In November 2025, the heavy - truck sales volume was 113,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - truck market this year [3] - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a new record [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On December 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 415 yuan/ton (+65), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 965 yuan/ton (-35), the NR basis was 522.00 yuan/ton (+50.00); the full latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (-50), the mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton (-80), the 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,875 US dollars/ton (-5), the spread between the full latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,300 yuan/ton (-80) [5] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheets were 58.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.01), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.10 Thai baht/kg (-0.10) [6] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.69% (-1.92%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.36% (+0.35%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 524,846 tons (+9,619), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+29,327), the RU futures inventory was 93,930 tons (+6,770), and the NR futures inventory was 57,960 tons (-1,008) [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spread - On December 29, 2025, the BR basis was - 200 yuan/ton (+235), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+200), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,300 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+150), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 931 yuan/ton (+184) [8] Operating Rates - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.77% (+0.51%) [9] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,690 tons (-720), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,850 tons (+1,250) [10]