多头止盈减仓，碳酸锂价格触及跌停

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is greatly affected by news and capital, with little change in fundamentals, and there will still be a slight oversupply in 2026 [1] - The current price is mainly driven by capital sentiment, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices. There is a risk of a short - term pullback [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 129,800 yuan/ton and closed at 118,820 yuan/ton, a - 7.89% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 688,764 lots, and the open interest decreased from 577,035 lots to 512,345 lots. The current basis is - 12,460 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 330 lots to 18,191 lots [1] - The sharp reduction in positions of the lithium carbonate main contract and the hitting of the daily limit are mainly due to the rapid recent increase and long - position profit - taking. Sodium battery substitution has become a new topic, and it may replace some lithium battery demand in the future [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 110,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, a change of 6,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 108,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, a change of 5,750 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,565 US dollars/ton, a change of 55 US dollars/ton [2] - Lithium salt plant production maintains stable growth. With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines, the domestic lithium carbonate output in December is expected to increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply is steadily released [2] - The spot inventory is 109,773 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 652 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 239 tons to 17,851 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,593 tons to 39,892 tons, and other inventories increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises [3] - Options: None [3] - Inter - delivery spread: None [4] - Cross - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4]