油脂日报：油脂供应充足，盘面持续震荡-20251230

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, resulting in a loose supply of soybean oil and high inventory. It is expected that soybean oil will remain volatile in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.65% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,818 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan or 0.23% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.07% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%, and the spot basis was P05 - 22 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 412 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.41%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 700 yuan, an increase of 46 yuan [1] Market News - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil for different shipping dates remained flat compared to the previous trading day, while the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans for January shipping decreased by 2 dollars/ton [2] - The export volume of Argentine soybean oil in November was 524,000 tons, lower than the previous month and last year. The total exports to India and Nepal increased. The total exports in the first 11 months were 6.48 million tons, lower than the same period in 2024. Further shipments are expected to be lower than last year due to reduced soybean processing and lower inventory [2] - Argentina announced a reduction in export tariffs for the soybean industry, with soybean tariffs decreasing from 26.5% to 24% and soybean product tariffs from 24.5% to 22.5% [2] Soybean Oil Situation - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1235 million tons, at a nearly 6 - year high. Last Thursday, the market traded on the delay of soybean customs clearance, boosting the soybean - related market, and the short - covering led to an increase in the spot basis [3]