贵金属板块承压，做好节前风险管理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal sector is under pressure, and risk management before the holiday should be done well. The market sentiment is still hot, but there are risks of policy expectation swings at home and abroad, and the fundamentals deviate from the market trend. One should continue to track the sentiment-driven market and make risk plans for the right-side adjustments [2][4] - Focus on the candidates for the Fed Chair and their impact on the pricing of interest rate cuts. The short-term market is still driven by sentiment and remains positive, but if the sentiment turns cold, one needs to be vigilant about the downward risk caused by the resonance of the macro and fundamentals [3] - Currently, focus on the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors with high certainty, and also pay attention to the opportunity of low-valued commodities to make up for the increase. For the futures market, one can buy on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have swung back. The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference have emphasized the continuation of fiscal and monetary policies, and multiple ministries have responded. China's November economic data is still under pressure, and one should pay attention to the expectations of policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts [2] - The Fed's December FOMC meeting announced the purchase of $40 billion in short-term bonds in the next 30 days and cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The US economy shows resilience, and the pricing of interest rate cuts in January next year has decreased [3] Commodity Analysis - In the non-ferrous sector, the long-term supply constraint has not been alleviated, and the certainty is still high. In the energy sector, some countries have submitted additional production cut plans, and there are warnings about oversupply and high inventory. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention. In the agricultural products sector, one should pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and the weather forecast for next year [4] - For the precious metal sector, one can pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. The short-term risk of silver has increased, and the gold-silver ratio has deviated from the reasonable repair range [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, one can go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - China's industrial enterprise profits in November decreased by 13.1% year-on-year. The digital RMB action plan will be officially launched on January 1, 2026, and China will adjust the tariff rates and items of some commodities on the same day [7] - Trump said that Russia and Ukraine are "close to reaching an agreement", and the "20-point peace plan" has been 95% negotiated. The Japanese central bank hinted at more interest rate hikes, and the Iranian president claimed to be in a "full-scale war" with the US, Europe, and Israel [3][7] - Spot gold fell below $4,440 per ounce, down more than 2% intraday, and spot silver fell below $74 per ounce, down 6.54% intraday [4][7]