临近年末买卖双方同时观望，铅价反弹或暂告段落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebound of lead prices may temporarily end as both buyers and sellers are observing the market near the year - end. The demand side is weak except for the automotive battery sector, but the lead variety is likely to be affected by the overall strong pattern of the non - ferrous sector. So, a neutral attitude is recommended for operation, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 37.81 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 200 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed 25 yuan/ton to - 25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed 225 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose 25 yuan/ton to 9950 yuan/ton, waste white shells remained unchanged at 10050 yuan/ton, and waste black shells rose 25 yuan/ton to 10350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17460 yuan/ton, closed at 17490 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84769 lots, an increase of 26000 lots, and the position was 54475 lots, a decrease of 1083 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17645 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17415 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17465 yuan/ton and closed at 17380 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 1.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week. As of December 29, the LME lead inventory was 244275 tons, a decrease of 4625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended for lead investment, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3][4]