原油日报：俄乌局势动荡推动油价反复-20251230

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oil price is closely related to the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although there were some positive developments in the meeting between Zelensky and Trump, it is unlikely that a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be achieved in the short term. In Q1 next year, oil prices still face significant downward pressure [2]. - The market generally expects China's SPR replenishment demand to be 500,000 barrels per day next year. If this fails to materialize, it means additional downward pressure on oil prices [2]. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - On December 27, the Russian government extended the temporary export ban on gasoline to February 28, 2026, and the export ban on diesel, marine fuel, and other fuels to the same date, except for direct oil producers. The current supply and demand in the Russian oil product market are balanced, and inventory has recovered to a level higher than the same period last year [1]. - According to the EIA report, in the week of December 19, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day [1]. - Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said that in response to the U.S. military deployment in the southern Caribbean, Venezuela has launched a large - scale logistical mobilization, and its crude oil shipments have been disrupted but not completely interrupted [1]. Investment Logic - The oil price is closely related to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The Russia-Ukraine peace talks are unlikely to make a breakthrough in the short term. Venezuelan crude oil shipments are affected but not halted, and its impact on oil prices is limited. In Q1 next year, oil prices face significant downward pressure. Failure to meet the expected 500,000 barrels per day of China's SPR replenishment demand will bring additional downward pressure on oil prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term trend of oil prices is weak and volatile, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the achievement of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].