部分区域现货降价成交好转
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-30 05:18
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea ex - factory prices have slightly decreased to attract orders, and transactions in some major producing areas have improved slightly. Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may continue to suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There is an expectation of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter due to gas - head maintenance starting in December and environmental warnings. On the demand side, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer sector has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased despite the resumption of some shutdown and production - cut devices. Factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, the raw material procurement rhythm of compound fertilizers, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9][12][15] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures include urea weekly production and urea device maintenance loss volume [18] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][28][30] 3.4 Urea Foreign Prices and Export Profit - Figures show urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][40][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures involve compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [51][53] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][56][63]