光大期货金融期货日报-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock Index: The stock index futures market has been oscillating along the lower edge of the central range since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes, frequent sector rotations, and relatively mild market sentiment. Important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index, but in the short term, it will mainly oscillate. The expected GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The central economic work conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the capital market is loose under the care of monetary policy, but the overall economy remains resilient, and prices are warming up. Therefore, the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% on Monday after a day of rising and then falling, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined, with a trading volume of over 2.15 trillion. The short - term impact of policies on the market is expected to increase. The expected GDP growth rate of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and restarted the balance - sheet expansion plan, but there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds. The short - term trend is oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts fell by 0.91%, 0.28%, 0.18%, and 0.07% respectively at the close. The central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on December 29, with a net injection of 415 billion yuan. DR001 fell 1.3BP to 1.24%, and DR007 rose 7BP to 1.59%. The short - term trend is relatively strong, but the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: From December 26 to December 29, IH fell 0.44% (from 3,051.4 to 3,038.0), IF fell 0.61% (from 4,638.4 to 4,610.2), IC fell 0.70% (from 7,388.0 to 7,336.6), and IM fell 0.45% (from 7,472.4 to 7,439.0) [3]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.35% (from 3,045.4 to 3,034.6), the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38% (from 4,657.2 to 4,639.4), the CSI 500 Index fell 0.38% (from 7,458.8 to 7,430.6), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.15% (from 7,605.5 to 7,594.2) [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.07% (from 102.55 to 102.48), TF fell 0.20% (from 106.05 to 105.84), T fell 0.30% (from 108.30 to 107.98), and TL fell 1.01% (from 112.96 to 111.82) [3]. 3.3 Market News - Overall Trend: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks declined, and the trading volume exceeded 2.15 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% [5]. - Industry Sectors: The carbon fiber concept strengthened, with stocks like Heshun Technology and Jilin Chemical Fiber hitting the daily limit. The digital currency concept rose, with stocks like Yuyin Co., Ltd. and Cuiwei Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The large - consumption and lithium - battery sectors declined, with stocks like Anji Food and Baida Group hitting the daily limit down and stocks like Sunwoda and Hongyuan Pharmaceutical falling more than 10% [5]. - Popular Concepts: Robot concept stocks remained active, with stocks like Shangwei New Materials and Buke Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit and reaching new highs. The commercial aerospace concept continued to be strong, with stocks like China Satellite and Shenjian Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures [7][9][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report presents the historical price trends, spot - bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital - interest rate trends of treasury bond futures main contracts [14][16][20]. - Exchange Rates: The report shows the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and Japanese yen against the RMB, as well as the forward exchange rates and currency - pair exchange rates [24][28][30][32].