固收+系列报告之九：公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The operation performance of public REITs is the core premise for judging their investment value. The income of REITs essentially comes from the cash - flow creation ability of underlying assets. The differentiation of operation performance is the key to distinguish high - quality assets from weak ones [41]. - In the current stage of public REITs with valuation adjustment, narrowing price difference between primary and secondary markets, and accelerating policy expansion and commercial real - estate pilot, it is recommended to adopt a dumbbell allocation strategy to balance the needs of "defense for income" and "offense for elasticity" [74]. Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - China's public REITs have entered the stage of normalized development. In 2025, they continued the normalized issuance trend, but the scale declined. By December 20, 2025, 19 public REITs were issued with a scale of 38.7 billion yuan [13]. - From 2021 to 2025, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs fluctuated significantly, driven by product supply scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types [19]. - The secondary - market performance of public REITs can be divided into six stages since the listing of the first batch in 2021. As of December 19, 2025, the annual increase of the CSI REITs total return index was +3.2%, significantly weaker than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bonds [21][22]. - The return of public REITs is between the CSI 300 and CSI Aggregate Bonds, complementary to the stock - bond hybrid nature of CSI Convertible Bonds. In the long - term, REITs have lower volatility than the CSI 300 and CSI Convertible Bonds, higher than the CSI Aggregate Bonds, and have a low correlation with other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio fluctuations [27]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Securities proprietary trading accounts for 51.3%, followed by insurance funds (19.9%) and industrial capital (13.6%), with the total proportion of these three types of institutional investors exceeding 84% [2][28]. - The structure of floating - share holders of different types of public REITs shows significant sector differentiation. Securities proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and high valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. The proportion of public funds and individual investors is low [2][30]. - The number of REIT products allocated by public fund FOFs has been continuously expanding, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the second quarter of 2025, the allocation was diversified, and from the second to the third quarter, it shifted to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - Industrial Parks: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resistance to decline, while some traditional industrial parks faced rising vacancy rates and falling rents [42]. - Warehousing and Logistics: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with some maintaining full occupancy and some fluctuating significantly. The rent level generally declined, and core - location assets had strong anti - risk abilities [46]. - Consumption: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. In the third quarter, some performed well, while others declined. The market presented the characteristics of "stable high - level rental rate and differentiated rent level" [51]. - Affordable Housing: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a rental rate of over 93% by the third quarter, and the rent level fluctuated minimally [54]. - Transportation: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - Ecological and Environmental Protection: The operating performance of ecological and environmental protection REITs improved. In the third quarter, the operating income of two listed REITs increased year - on - year, and the waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume increased [61]. - Energy: In 2025, except for one REIT, the operating income of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind - power field was generally sluggish [63]. - Municipal Facilities: The heating area and charging area of a municipal heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - Water Conservancy: The operating income of a water - conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the 50.91% increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - New Infrastructure: Two new - infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025. Their trusteeship service fee collection rates were both 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in the Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for REITs new - issue subscriptions has declined, and there have been cases of breaking the issue price on the first - day of listing. The decline in primary - market new - issue returns is affected by the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing price difference between the primary and secondary markets. Different asset types show differentiated performance. It is recommended to focus on high - quality projects in primary - market new - issue subscriptions and strategic placements, and be cautious about strategic placements with long lock - up periods [75]. Secondary Market: The Dumbbell Strategy Combines Defense and Offense - Public REITs are a supplementary asset class for asset allocation, matching the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs can improve the Sharpe ratio of the investment portfolio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividends + high - quality assets" principle, adopt the dumbbell strategy, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental - protection assets, and invest in new - infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, grasp the incremental opportunities brought by expansion and issuance [82].