贵金属价格回调，长线看多逻辑不改

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market is currently volatile. The significant correction in silver prices may suppress gold prices, but the long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 17,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,200 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Trump will announce the Fed Chair nominee at an appropriate time and has criticized Fed Chair Powell and the Fed's building renovation. He is considering suing Powell for incompetence. Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and both sides said the talks "made great progress" but did not make any major announcements. Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue remains difficult and must ultimately be decided by the Ukrainian people [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1015.38 yuan/gram and closed at 1007.18 yuan/gram, down 0.90% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 1004.72 yuan/gram and closed at 975.80 yuan/gram, down 3.12% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 18,215.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,201.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,328,363 lots, and the open interest was 216,399 lots. During the night session, it opened at 18,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,237 yuan/kilogram, down 5.32% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 29, 2025, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, down 1.8 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.66%, up 0.5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On December 29, 2025, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 9,083 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,516 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 502,157 lots, up 4.22% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 31,114 lots, and the short positions decreased by 30,969 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 4,930,646 lots, down 14.05% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 1,071.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,391 tons, down 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 29, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -10.75 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,735.58 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 55.34, down 4.27% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 64.27, up 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 57,238 kilograms, up 78.16% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,602,424 kilograms, up 106.00% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,280 kilograms [7].