年末关注持仓下降而可能带来的价格回调风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of silver and copper have risen significantly, deviating from the fundamentals. Due to the short - term supply bottleneck, the price may not fall immediately. However, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the reduction of year - end positions. Downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at the current copper price and not over - hedge excessively. If the price falls to the range of 94,000 yuan/ton to 95,000 yuan/ton, they can increase the intensity of buying hedging. Arbitrage should be postponed, and options should sell put options [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 98,310 yuan/ton and closed at 98,860 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 97,020 yuan/ton and closed at 96,060 yuan/ton, down 2.83% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the Shanghai copper spot market was in a discount pattern. The quotation range was from a discount of 400 yuan/ton to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, and the average premium increased slightly. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the short - term large - discount situation was expected to continue [2]. Important Information Summary - In terms of the Fed, Trump criticized Powell and considered suing him. Geopolitically, Trump met with Zelensky, and both sides said the talks had made progress but did not make major announcements [3]. Mine End - Aeris Resources received approval to develop the Constellation copper - gold project in the Cobar Basin, Australia. The project has proven and probable ore reserves of 2.3 million tons and a total mineral resource of 7.6 million tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Since last week, the average price of Yangshan copper premium bill of lading was 53.4 US dollars/ton, up 4.4 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The average price of warehouse receipts was 53.6 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price was 11 US dollars/ton, down 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week. As of December 24, the import loss was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The Yangshan copper premium was expected to strengthen after a short - term stability [5]. Consumption - In the week of December 27, 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points month - on - month. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to drop to 55.28%, and that of cable enterprises to 60.35% [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by - 1,550 tons to 154,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 7,231 tons to 65,878 tons. On December 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [6]. Price and Related Data - The report also provides data on TC price, SMM1 copper premium and discount, refined - scrap price difference, copper import profit and loss, copper main contract position and trading volume, etc. It also shows the price and basis data of copper at different times (today, yesterday, last week, one month) [8][27][28][29]