消费转淡铝合金相对偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Consumption of electrolytic aluminum is shifting from peak season to off - season, with spot discounts widening, and social inventory rising due to increased arrivals. High - frequency fundamental data restricts the upside of aluminum prices. In the long run, overseas power costs may lead to potential sudden production cuts, and with the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in China, the decline in aluminum prices is limited. Consider the arbitrage between SHFE aluminum and aluminum alloy [6]. - After the absolute price of alumina rises, it's difficult to ship old warehouse receipts in Xinjiang, and the regular tender procurement of electrolytic aluminum plants has stopped. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the long - term supply of ore is sufficient, so the ore price may be under long - term pressure. The pattern of oversupply is hard to change, and social inventory will continue to increase. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is sufficient, and the winter storage expectation is low [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminum Spot - On December 29, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 22,490 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 200 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 22,410 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount changed - 10 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 29, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 22,350 yuan/ton, closed at 22,570 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,980 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 618,625 lots, and the open interest was 289,255 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 645,000 tons, a change of 28,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 78,455 tons, a change of 1,396 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 519,250 tons, a change of - 1,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,665 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,690 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,750 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 313 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 29, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,729 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,308,863 lots, and the open interest was 396,675 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 29, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,400 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,900 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,499 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 2 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Strategy - Single - side trading: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [9]. - Arbitrage: Go long on SHFE aluminum and short on aluminum alloy [9]