光大期货农产品日报（2025 年12 月30日）-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices continued to rise on Monday, with near - month contracts leading and far - month contracts following. The futures market rebound and the start of stocking by ports and downstream feed enterprises supported the market. The price of corn in the sales area generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the price in the northern port increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton over the weekend. Technically, maintain a short - term long - position view on corn, and the spot and futures prices are expected to remain strong before New Year's Day [2]. - CBOT soybeans fell on Monday due to cautious trading before the holiday. As of December 25, the US soybean export inspection volume was 750,000 tons, at the lower end of the market's estimated range. Domestically, the prices of two types of meal rose first and then fell, lacking upward momentum. Oil mills announced shutdown plans around New Year's Day, supporting the spot and basis markets. It is expected that the price of soybean meal will fluctuate within a limited range, and a double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - BMD palm oil prices declined on Monday due to high inventories, but the expected decline in production and strong demand limited the drop. The export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 3% month - on - month. Domestic vegetable oils showed a mixed trend. The inventory of the three major vegetable oils decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 2.1081 million tons as of December 26, but increased by 9.28% year - on - year. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will fluctuate, and a double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Egg futures slightly corrected on Monday. The spot price of eggs rebounded due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, but the supply was abundant, so the short - term rebound range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to changes in the replenishment and culling intentions of the breeding end [2]. - The main continuous contract of live pigs opened with a gap on Monday and then adjusted under pressure, but the price range continued to move up. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 12.29 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous day. Technically, pay attention to the bottom performance of the March 2026 contract in the short term, and participate in the far - month contracts with a long - term long - position with a light position [3]. Market Information Summary - As of December 27, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 97.9%, up from 97.6% last week, compared with 98.2% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96.7%; the soybean harvesting rate was 0.1%, the same as last year and the five - year average [3]. - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the US shipped 135,417 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), down from 386,010 tons in the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume to China accounted for 18.05% of the total export inspection volume for the week, compared with 44.36% last week [3]. - Private exporters reported the sale of 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - On December 29, the trading volume of soybean oil was 13,000 tons, a 34.02% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean oil showed significant fluctuations in the previous days, with the weekly average being 24,300 tons [4]. Variety Spread Summary Contract Spread - The report presents contract spreads such as the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][6][7] Contract Basis - The report shows contract bases such as those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [13][14][18]