铁矿石：市场情绪回暖，关注补库需求

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro narrative is positive, the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, but the decline in domestic iron ore demand exceeds expectations, the supply side is generally stable with a slight increase, port inventories are expected to accumulate, the short - term trading focus shifts to the real end, price upside is limited, but restocking demand may support prices, and the market will fluctuate in the short term [4] - The price of the main iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will operate in the range of 770 - 800 RMB/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 USD/ton [4] - The strategy is to conduct range - based operations and use covered call options [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - Weekly shipments of foreign iron ore decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and stable Brazilian shipments. According to seasonal patterns and this year's shipping targets of major mines, there will be a phased rush to meet the targets at the end of the year, and weekly shipments will increase month - on - month. The short - term arrival volume remains at a moderately high level and is higher than the same period last year, so the supply - side support is weak [4] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly. The steel mill profitability rate has rebounded after the decline in carbon element prices. There are both blast furnace overhauls and restarts this period. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Overall, domestic steel mill demand has a short - term upward trend, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to be continuously released [4] Inventory - The imported inventory at steel mills has increased month - on - month, but the steel mill inventory is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar - denominated goods at steel mills will be fully launched. Port inventories have been continuously accumulating, mainly because the arrival volume has remained relatively high. It is expected that port inventories will continue to accumulate in December [4]