Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-12-30 06:00Group 1 - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the environmental sector, highlighting the potential for growth and the strengthening of dividend attributes in municipal environmental assets [1][2] - Municipal environmental assets exhibit regional monopolistic characteristics, anti-cyclical nature, and stable profitability, with typical companies showing dividend yields between 4% and 7% [4][5] - Insurance capital has steadily increased its holdings in environmental governance, reaching 0.2% by Q3 2025, and is expected to continue favoring dividend-yielding stocks [5][11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of free cash flow turning positive and the expectation of increased dividends as key drivers for stock price appreciation in the municipal environmental sector [23][39] - The performance of municipal environmental companies has shown significant growth in profitability, with garbage incineration enterprises experiencing high profit increases and improved cash flow due to capacity growth and reduced costs [12][18] - The report suggests focusing on companies with positive cash flow nearing stabilization, such as Xingrong Environment, and those with already positive cash flow and increasing dividends, like Guangda Environment and Hanlan Environment [5][23] Group 3 - The biofuel sector is expected to benefit from ongoing international carbon reduction policies, with prices for SAF and UCO anticipated to rise due to increased demand [5][18] - The report recommends focusing on scarce biofuel industry chain targets, particularly those transitioning to SAF or expanding overseas, such as Zhuoyue New Energy [5][18] - The demand for green methanol is projected to grow significantly starting in 2025, with companies like Jiazhe New Energy being highlighted for investment [5][18] Group 4 - The report outlines that the capital expenditure in the garbage incineration sector is entering a contraction phase, which is expected to enhance free cash flow and improve dividend capabilities [39][43] - The industry is transitioning to a phase of refined operations, focusing on internal growth and cautious external expansion, with significant potential for profit and cash flow improvement [48][49] - The report highlights the importance of regional characteristics and business models in determining the profitability and operational efficiency of garbage incineration companies [54][60]