Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 29, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.68%. The open interest decreased by 3,677 lots to 221,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,603 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 135 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 56,500 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 4.84%. The open interest decreased by 23,500 lots to 95,600 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type recycled polysilicon material was raised to 52,400 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 52,400 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 4,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon plants in the southwest region cut production again, while those in the northwest had both increases and decreases, with expectations of environmental protection - related production cuts in the future. Due to high - level hedging, the overall inventory pressure of silicon plants was limited. In the short term, industrial silicon continued to follow the logic of cost and production - cut - driven price increases [2]. - Battery cell production was cut and prices were raised again due to the sharp rise in silver prices, and silicon wafer manufacturers significantly raised their quotes. However, the price increase effect at the crystalline silicon end was not good, and several polysilicon material plants reported production cuts in January. Due to the weakening market feedback on state reserves, the re - discussion of the industrial chain profit distribution and downstream production - cut pressure, and the emergence of new warehouse receipt registrations to relieve pressure, the polysilicon futures price gradually corrected downward. There were still risks of capital - side disturbances in the futures market, and investors were advised to be vigilant against short - chasing and focus on the implementation of production cuts by polysilicon material plants [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Viewpoints - The research viewpoints section mainly analyzes the price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon on December 29, 2025, including the changes in futures prices, open interest, and spot prices. It also analyzes the production - cut situation of silicon plants and the reasons for the price fluctuations in the polysilicon market, and provides investment suggestions [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased, with the main contract dropping from 8,880 yuan/ton to 8,715 yuan/ton and the near - month contract dropping from 8,790 yuan/ton to 8,625 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions remained stable, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 135 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of industrial silicon increased, with the daily warehouse receipt increasing by 480 tons to 9,907 tons, and the social inventory increasing by 6,000 tons to 462,150 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased, with the main contract dropping from 58,955 yuan/ton to 56,500 yuan/ton and the near - month contract dropping from 59,500 yuan/ton to 57,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 4,100 yuan/ton. The inventory of polysilicon increased, with the daily warehouse receipt increasing by 30 tons to 4,000 tons, and the social inventory increasing by 0.2 million tons to 30.8 million tons [3]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of most organic silicon products remained stable, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - The section may include charts showing the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices, which help to analyze the price trends and cost - side factors of industrial silicon [5][8][10]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - It includes charts of the prices of downstream products such as DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, which help to understand the price trends of the downstream industrial chain of industrial silicon [13][15][17]. 3.3 Inventory - The section presents charts of the futures inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC, which helps to monitor the inventory situation of the industrial chain [20][21][23]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - It includes charts of the average cost level, average profit level, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, processing industry profit of polysilicon, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of aluminum alloy, which helps to analyze the cost - profit situation of different industries in the industrial chain [25][27][29].
工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 30 日）-20251230
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-12-30 06:08