光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 30 日）-20251230

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.23% to 64.34 cents per pound, and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract dropped 0.41% to 14,435 yuan per ton, with the main contract's open interest decreasing by 35,230 lots to 868,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,240 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the overall driving force is limited, and U.S. cotton is mainly in a low - level oscillation. Domestically, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract declined with reduced positions. After the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose nearly 1,000 yuan per ton in December, the willingness to cash out increased. There are expectations for policies in the future, such as the cotton target price subsidy policy. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current level, but the downside space is limited. Future concerns include consumption performance and possible policy changes [1]. - For sugar, as of December 27 in the current crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 14.0733 million tons, a decrease of 2.8243 million tons (16.71%) from the same period last year. The sugar content in sugarcane was 11.44%, down 0.07% from the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.09%, up 0.095% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, a decrease of 0.2406 million tons (15.83%) from the same period last year. Domestic spot prices were lowered again, and with the New Year's Day holiday approaching, market trading slowed down. The market will continue to be in a narrow - range consolidation, and the sales and production progress after the holiday should be monitored [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Research Views - Cotton: The international market has limited drivers, and the domestic main contract decreased with reduced positions. After a December price increase, there is a stronger willingness to cash out. Policy expectations exist, and short - term adjustment is expected with limited downside. Key concerns are consumption and policy changes [1]. - Sugar: Thailand's sugar production data shows a decline compared to last year. Domestic spot prices dropped, trading slowed down before the holiday, and the market is in consolidation. Post - holiday sales and production progress is the focus [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, up 5; the main contract basis was 1106, up 324. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,385, up 267, and the national spot price was 15,541, up 224 [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 23, down 37; the main contract basis was 147, up 12. The Nanning spot price was 5360, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5400, down 20 [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On December 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5085, an increase of 232 from the previous day, with 3762 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - Sugar: On December 29, the Nanning and Liuzhou sugar spot prices decreased by 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5038, with 2965 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to cotton (closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.) and sugar (closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.), showing historical data trends [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]