受贵金属回调影响，沪镍价格冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]