供应预期增加，PX/PTA减仓回撤

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Cost side: There is more consensus on the details of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, oil prices have retreated again, and geopolitical news is fluctuating. In Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices [1] - PX: PXN reached $377/ton last last trading day (a $16.00/ton increase from the previous period). PX plants at home and abroad are operating stably. With the current abundant MX supply, PX production can be effectively maintained even if some plants have fluctuations in reformer operations. Recently, PXN has risen significantly to a seasonal high. With the improvement in profitability, there are more restart plans overseas, and more imports are expected due to arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets. There are many PX maintenance plans in Q2 next year, and the long - term outlook is still positive. However, the blending - into - gasoline market shows no obvious improvement, and the risks of increasing supply and declining polyester demand are gradually emerging [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -63 yuan/ton (a 2 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 346 yuan/ton (a 32 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market is 336 yuan/ton (a 13 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). There are many PTA maintenance plans in the near term. Although the polyester load has decreased, the overall production cut is less than expected. The PTA balance sheet shows inventory reduction in December, and the inventory build - up pressure in January is acceptable. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [2] - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.4% (a 0.7% decrease from the previous period), and the weaving load continues to decline. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and坯布 inventory has started to accumulate rapidly. Although there are some samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders, there are no large - scale orders yet. Due to the rise in raw material prices, there was restocking this week, and filament inventory has dropped to a low level [3] - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautious about the risk of capital reduction and price retreat. Pay attention to the capital flow and the change in downstream polyester load for PX; for TA, pay attention to the possibility of plant restart with the improvement of processing fees; for PF, the processing fee is under pressure; for PR, the short - term polyester bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][23] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate [49][51][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [93][98][99]