银河期货烧碱周报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently dominated by bearish factors. Supply is abundant while demand lacks highlights, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak and stable-to-declining oscillatory pattern next week [4]. - There is a high probability that the price of aluminum oxide will decline. The market supply is increasing with the outflow of expired warehouse receipts from Xinjiang, and the demand side has a high inventory level, reducing the need for further large - scale spot purchases [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Supply: The supply pressure of the chlor - alkali industry remains. The operating rate of chlor - alkali plants is high, with the national sample enterprise operating load rate at 89.84% and a weekly output of 869,500 tons. Maintenance losses are decreasing, and there will be no large - scale maintenance except for a few enterprises in the future, indicating sufficient supply [4]. - Demand: Demand is weak, and downstream support has weakened. The operating capacity of the core downstream aluminum oxide industry has dropped to 81.37%, and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has slightly decreased. Downstream and traders are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude and making purchases based on rigid demand [4]. - Inventory: Inventory performance varies. In Shandong, inventory decreased by 18.12% due to price - for - volume strategies, but in East China, the overall inventory increased by 2.83%, showing inventory accumulation pressure in some regions [4]. - Profit: Profits have shrunk significantly. Affected by the decline in liquid caustic soda prices, the ECU profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has decreased significantly. In Shandong, the profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants decreased by 25.90% month - on - month, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 146.97 yuan per ton [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Caustic soda shows a weak trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being; Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. Core Logic Analysis - Aluminum Oxide in Shandong: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale aluminum oxide plants in Shandong is at a high level, and the price continues to decline. From November 14 to December 5, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major aluminum oxide plants in Shandong was continuously reduced [7][9]. - Aluminum Oxide Production and Market: The overall operation of national aluminum oxide enterprises is relatively stable. As of Friday, the national built - in capacity of aluminum oxide is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.90 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.6%. The inventory of aluminum oxide at the electrolytic aluminum enterprise end continues to rise, and the market supply is increasing. It is expected that the price of aluminum oxide will decline rapidly next week [17]. - Caustic Soda Operation: From December 5 - 11, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The load in North China and East China increased slightly, while that in Southwest and Central China decreased [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - Price: The report provides price trend charts of caustic soda futures, 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as charts of caustic soda variety spreads, regional spreads, and profit [22][25][28][30][32][35][38]. - Inventory: As of December 11, 2025, the warehouse inventory of national fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 457,100 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 50.1%. The inventory performance varies by region [13]. - Output: Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton caustic soda plant has been put into operation, and Gansu Yaowang Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 300,000 - ton caustic soda project has also been successfully put into operation, with a current daily output of 600 - 700 wet tons of 32% liquid caustic soda. The total additional capacity in 2025 is expected to be 2.1 million tons [52][53]. - Plant Maintenance: The report lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions, including the enterprise names, caustic soda capacities, and maintenance schedules [55]. - Consumption: The report provides charts of caustic soda demand, weekly consumption (including exports), and consumption of different types of caustic soda [57][58]. - Aluminum Oxide Production Capacity: There will be a large number of new aluminum oxide production capacity projects put into operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, especially in Guangxi. The new capacity will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [65][66]. - Viscose Staple Fiber: From September 12 - 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% [67]. - Printing and Dyeing Industry: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions showed different trends, and the industry was generally stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [71]. - Caustic Soda Export: The report provides charts of caustic soda export volume, export price, export profit, and export destinations. In 2025, there is an estimated 4.5 million tons of new overseas aluminum oxide production capacity to be put into operation, and most of the new aluminum oxide plants in Indonesia have been put into operation, with caustic soda stockpiling completed [73][74][82].