中诚信国际生猪养殖行业特别评论

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the supply in China's pig market has been generally loose, leading to a downward trend in pig prices and pushing the pig - grain ratio into the warning zone. This has weakened the profitability and cash - generating ability of breeding enterprises. Although the debt scale has continued to decline, the financial leverage of breeding enterprises remains high, and they may face short - term debt repayment pressure under the pressure of product prices. In the short term, the pig supply surplus situation is difficult to reverse quickly, and pig prices may remain volatile at a low - profit level. In 2026, the pressure of oversupply is expected to gradually ease, and pig prices may recover but still oscillate at a low - profit level [3][6][39]. - Large - scale breeding is the core trend in the pig - breeding industry. In 2025, the cost and profit gap between large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farmers narrowed, but leading enterprises still increased their market share. Enterprises with stronger cost - control capabilities will have higher competitiveness and risk - resistance [6][23][39]. Summary According to the Directory Main Concerns - Supply - side Factors - High - level operation of breeding capacity and improved breeding efficiency have led to an overall loose supply in the pig market since 2025. The national inventory of breeding sows has remained at around 40 million, and the PSY index has increased, further amplifying the positive impact on pig slaughter volume. From January to September 2025, the national pig inventory increased year - on - year by about 2%, and as of the end of September, it reached 436.8 million [7][8]. - Secondary fattening was an important disturbing factor in the first half of 2025. In April, the number of pigs sold to the secondary fattening channel by monitored breeding enterprises reached 59,200 per week, accounting for 33.54% of the total. After May, policy restrictions and market factors led to the concentrated slaughter of second - fattened pigs, exacerbating the supply surplus. In the second half of the year, the impact of secondary fattening decreased [10][11]. - Demand - side Factors - Market consumption is relatively weak. The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises has been declining, and as of November 28, it dropped to 85.60%. The frozen - meat inventory may be released around the Spring Festival in 2026, and the demand increase during the peak season may not offset the supply increase [16]. - Cost - side Factors - From January to October 2025, the total output of industrial feed increased by 7.72% year - on - year to 279.133 million tons, and the sales of pig feed increased for 10 consecutive months. In the first half of the year, feed prices rose due to factors such as the tariff on US soybeans and the fluctuation of Brazilian soybean arrivals. In the second half of the year, feed prices declined with the new grain listing and increased soybean imports. Overall, the average feed price from January to November decreased by 4.47% year - on - year [18]. - Pig Price Factors - In 2025, pig prices generally declined, with the highest price of 16.54 yuan/kg in mid - January. The pig - grain ratio entered the warning zone in August. The government launched multiple rounds of central frozen - pork purchases. In the short term, pig prices may remain volatile at a low level, and in 2026, they may recover but still operate at a low - profit level [20]. Industry Development Trends - Large - scale breeding is the core trend. The proportion of large - scale pig farms (with an annual slaughter of over 500 pigs) increased from less than 40% in 2015 to over 70% in 2024. In 2025, the cost and profit gap between large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farmers narrowed, but leading enterprises still increased their market share. For example, the market share of the top three enterprises increased from 16.84% in 2024 to 19.73% in the first three quarters of 2025 [23][24]. Financial Situation of Breeding Enterprises - Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, 11 sample enterprises achieved a total operating income of 344.635 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.06%. Both the self - breeding and self - fattening model and the model of purchasing piglets for fattening were in a loss state. As of November, the loss per head was 147.99 yuan and 248.82 yuan respectively. Leading enterprises had better cost - control results, and the gap in the average period expense ratio between other enterprises and the top three enterprises widened to about 4 percentage points [29]. - Capital Expenditure and Asset Status - Since 2025, breeding enterprises have been cautious about capital expenditure. As of the end of September, the total fixed assets of sample enterprises decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter, and the total construction in progress decreased by 1.32% compared with the end of the previous year. The productive biological assets decreased by 9.19%, and the inventory decreased by 4.54% [34]. - Capital Structure and Debt Situation - By the end of September 2025, the average total debt of sample enterprises decreased by 10.55% year - on - year and 3.20% quarter - on - quarter. The average asset - liability ratio and total capitalization ratio decreased by 6.25 and 8.96 percentage points respectively. However, the short - term debt of leading enterprises was significantly higher than that of other sample enterprises, and they may face short - term debt repayment pressure [35]. - Operating Cash Flow and Solvency - As the pig price declined in the second quarter of 2025, the operating cash flow of most sample enterprises decreased year - on - year. The liquidity ratio of most sample enterprises improved, but the average liquidity ratio of the top three enterprises was lower than that of other sample enterprises. The ability of monetary funds to cover short - term debt weakened, but the ability of operating cash flow to cover total debt increased [37].