有色商品日报-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose then fell, erasing almost all gains; SHFE copper trended lower, dropping below 100,000 yuan/ton. Domestic refined copper imports remained at a loss. LME inventory decreased by 2,450 tons to 154,575 tons, Comex inventory increased by 4,880 tons to 443,003 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 21,200 tons to 214,800 tons. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious, with exports becoming active. Affected by the precious metals market, copper prices may return to fundamentals after risk - release, and this decline may accumulate energy for future upward movement [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended lower. Alumina prices decreased to 2,702 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. With high ore reserves in alumina plants and lower long - term contract prices, alumina prices face downward pressure. The macro - sentiment is positive, but the release of backlogged goods and approaching the New Year will increase inventory pressure and put pressure on spot discounts [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.64% and SHFE nickel fell 0.81%. LME inventory decreased by 510 tons and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 983 tons. The Indonesian nickel ore production plan for 2026 may be significantly reduced, and the government plans to revise the nickel benchmark price calculation formula. Nickel ore prices are stable, nickel - iron prices rose, and the theoretical profit of nickel sulfate turned negative. News may boost nickel prices, but the actual implementation is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - Copper: Overnight LME and SHFE copper showed different trends. Inventory changes were mixed, and downstream procurement was cautious. The fall in copper prices may be a prelude to future upward movement [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all weakened. High ore reserves and lower costs put pressure on alumina prices. The release of backlogged goods and approaching the New Year will increase inventory pressure on aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and SHFE nickel had opposite trends. Inventory changes were different. News from Indonesia may affect nickel prices, and the market is waiting for implementation [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Market prices mostly increased, such as the price of flat - water copper rising by 2,990 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, while Comex and social inventories increased [1][3]. - Aluminum: Market prices generally rose, and inventory changes varied. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 12,000 tons, while alumina inventory decreased by 29,000 tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased. The social inventory of nickel also increased [2][4]. - Zinc: The main contract price increased by 0.4%. Market prices generally rose, and inventory changes were mixed. Social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [6]. - Lead: Market prices mostly increased, and inventory changes were mixed. LME inventory decreased by 4,625 tons, and domestic inventory decreased by 780 tons [3]. - Tin: The main contract price increased by 1.3%. Market prices generally rose, and inventory increased. LME inventory increased by 250 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 382 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][20][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][23][24][25][26][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][42][43][44][45][46]. Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [48][49].