港股市场策略周报：2025.12.22-2025.12.28-20251230

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a narrow upward fluctuation during the week due to the Christmas holiday, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng Composite Index rising by 0.44%, 0.5%, and 0.37% respectively [5][15] - Most primary industry sectors saw gains, with notable declines in the information technology, telecommunications, and healthcare sectors, which fell by 0.77%, 1.09%, and 1.76% respectively [5][15] - The materials sector surged by 4.3%, driven by strong international precious and industrial metal prices and geopolitical risks that heightened macro risk aversion [15] Valuation Levels - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index was 82.56%, indicating that the valuation level is close to one standard deviation above the 5-year average [5] Buyback Statistics - The buyback market cooled down this week, with 66 companies participating, a decrease of 9 from the previous week [27] - The total buyback amount for the week was 30.67 billion HKD, down by 19.54 billion from the previous week [27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 1.907 billion HKD, followed by Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with 444 million HKD [27] Macro Environment Tracking and Outlook - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is heavily reliant on Chinese state-owned enterprises, with over 80% of profits coming from mainland China, indicating a close correlation with the economic conditions in China [39][40] - Key economic indicators show that industrial profits in November fell by 13.1% year-on-year, significantly down from the previous value of -5.5%, reflecting weak domestic demand in consumption and real estate [45] - The People's Bank of China announced a new digital currency management framework set to launch on January 1, 2026, which may influence future financial transactions [39] - The government plans to continue supporting consumption through fiscal policies, focusing on sectors like artificial intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, and quantum technology [39] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors benefiting from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology [5][45] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises are expected to perform well due to stable earnings and stock prices, alongside local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent of broader economic fluctuations [5][45]