资本周期系列：从业绩变脸到价值修复

Group 1 - The report identifies a U-shaped evolution of ROE growth for companies in the A-share market post-IPO, with an average turning point occurring around 9.32 years after listing [1][16][22] - A systematic "three-step" screening framework is proposed to identify industries and stocks with long-term investment value, extracting a sample pool of approximately 23% from over 5000 A-shares [1][3][17] - The individual stock dimension is crucial for accurately identifying the real phase of the cycle, as industries like banking and real estate show strong clustering effects, while sectors like power equipment and pharmaceuticals require individual stock analysis for precise judgment [1][3][17] Group 2 - The first step of empirical research involves using a quadratic function to identify stocks with significant U-shaped characteristics, resulting in 1273 stocks (about 23%) being classified into potential stocks (241) and performance stocks (1032) based on their lifecycle phases [2][18][19] - In the first phase (pressure period), industries such as media, utilities, and pharmaceuticals exhibit strong defensive resilience, while in the second phase (recovery period), sectors like power equipment, electronics, and home appliances show high elasticity in ROE recovery [3][34][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of micro-level selection within industries to identify stocks that outperform their industry benchmarks, ensuring selected stocks possess both industry support and superior alpha attributes [3][17][33] Group 3 - Case studies reveal that leading stocks in the first phase include media, utilities, and pharmaceuticals, while in the second phase, power equipment, electronics, and machinery dominate in terms of upward elasticity [4][36] - The banking sector demonstrates strong value blue-chip characteristics, with 40% of its stocks in the second phase, indicating high certainty in profit recovery and operational stability [27][41] - The food and beverage industry shows significant differentiation, with white liquor stocks like Guizhou Moutai in the first phase, while mass consumer goods have entered the second phase, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [36][39]