2025年12月房地产市场跟踪：行业下行压力加大，中央经济工作会议定调“着力稳定房地产市场”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the central government's approach to the real estate market, emphasizing "stabilizing the market" rather than merely pushing for recovery [2][4][13] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing increased downward pressure, with the supply-demand relationship shifting from total shortage to basic balance, highlighting structural supply deficiencies [2][4] - The central economic work conference has outlined a policy framework focusing on supply-demand coordination, inventory reduction, and promoting quality housing [3][5] - The report notes that as of November 2025, the nationwide unsold commercial housing area stands at 753 million square meters, indicating a high inventory level that requires ongoing efforts for reduction [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate market is under pressure, with new housing transaction volumes continuing to decline, while "good houses" are becoming the mainstay of market support [1] - The central government's focus has shifted to stabilizing the market, with an emphasis on addressing structural supply issues and enhancing the quality of housing [2][4] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference has introduced measures to control land supply, encourage the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing, and promote the construction of quality housing [3][4] - The report highlights that local governments are expected to implement various policies, including purchase subsidies and tax reductions, to stimulate inventory reduction [4][5] Demand Dynamics - The demand side is seeing improvements, with the central government advocating for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the housing market, particularly in core cities [5] - Recent policy changes in Beijing have aimed to optimize housing purchase restrictions, supporting families with multiple children and adjusting credit policies [5][8] Market Performance - In November 2025, the average price of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a slight month-on-month increase, while the overall sales volume and value continued to decline year-on-year [5][8] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with significant declines noted in major cities, although transaction volumes are showing signs of recovery [8][9]