从国家治理看宏观:中国式“长期主义”
Orient Securities·2025-12-30 06:44

Group 1: Long-term Strategy - China's political economy relies on "long-termism," emphasizing historical patience and strategic stability amid global changes[5] - The "Five-Year Plan" exemplifies China's long-term strategy, focusing on continuity and gradual execution rather than disruption[5] - China's understanding of time spans centuries, supporting the value of its assets through long-term goals[5] Group 2: Policy Continuity - The continuity of goals ensures that strategic intentions are realized, with each Five-Year Plan building on the previous one[9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are interconnected, leading towards the centenary goals of building a prosperous socialist modern state[9] - China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 illustrates its steadfast approach to long-term objectives, contrasting with the policy fluctuations seen in Western countries[10] Group 3: Incremental Capability Development - China's governance evolves through iterative upgrades, with policies adapting to current challenges while maintaining overarching themes[12] - The "Made in China 2025" strategy employs a phased approach, aiming for significant advancements by 2025, 2035, and 2049[13] - Infrastructure investments in key regions, such as the "Belt and Road Initiative," reflect a long-term vision for regional connectivity and economic growth[21] Group 4: Social Cohesion and Action - The realization of long-term economic goals depends on collective action across society, facilitated by clear roadmaps and accountability mechanisms[27] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes a comprehensive responsibility system to ensure effective implementation and monitoring of goals[27] - Cultural values, such as the promotion of socialist core values, underpin the social cohesion necessary for achieving long-term objectives[27] Group 5: Investment Themes - Long-termism translates into investment themes, including cultural confidence, strategic industries, and energy security[30] - The focus on local cultural heritage and strategic sectors is expected to continue evolving, reflecting China's unique economic landscape[30] - The stability of China's macro policies is increasingly recognized as a comparative advantage by global investors[30]