银行春季躁动布局策略：复盘与展望

Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a high win rate of over 80% in the ten years leading up to the Spring Festival, with significant differentiation among individual stocks, where quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks often outperform, while state-owned banks provide stable performance [2][4][19] - The Shenyin Wanguo Banking Index has the highest win rate for absolute and excess returns among 31 industry indices, with an average absolute return of 4.4% and an average excess return of 4.9% before the Spring Festival [2][4] - The favorable conditions for the banking sector before the Spring Festival in 2026 are expected to continue, driven by balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and supportive policies leading to better credit performance [2][16][22] Stock Allocation Recommendations - A suggested allocation strategy is to maintain a stable core position (30% in state-owned banks) and an aggressive portfolio (70% in quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks) [3][19][22] - Key recommendations for stable state-owned banks include Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, while the aggressive portfolio should focus on China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3][19][22] Individual Stock Performance - Individual stock performance shows significant differentiation, with quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks more likely to achieve excess returns, while state-owned banks are characterized by strong defensiveness but limited elasticity [13][19] - Historical data indicates that the top-performing bank stocks before the Spring Festival include China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changsha Bank, which frequently appear in the top gainers list [13][14] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The high win rate of the banking index before the Spring Festival is attributed to various factors, including balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and effective policy measures [16][20][22] - For 2026, the expectation is that the banking sector will continue to benefit from stable growth policies, with a likely increase in credit issuance compared to the previous year, favoring banks with strong credit performance [16][22]