第一创业晨会纪要-20251230

Group 1: Industry Overview - The latest auction by PJM, the largest grid operator in the U.S., indicates that the capacity price for 2027/2028 has reached a ceiling of $333.4, with a simulated "shadow price" suggesting that actual costs may be 60% higher. Goldman Sachs warns that if future auctions eliminate price caps, electricity costs could potentially double. In November, the U.S. data center power demand capacity saw an increase of 1.6 GW, significantly surpassing the average monthly growth of 0.26 GW from 2017 to 2024, bringing the total capacity to 44.6 GW. This trend supports the view that the development of AI in the U.S. is increasingly constrained by electricity costs, leading to a positive outlook for the power equipment industry [3]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - On December 29, SMIC announced that its subsidiary, SMIC Southern, will increase its registered capital from $6.5 billion to $10.0773 billion. The capital increase will primarily come from SMIC Holdings and various national and regional integrated circuit funds, totaling $7.778 billion. Following this capital increase, SMIC will hold a 41.56% stake in SMIC Southern. This significant growth indicates ongoing large-scale expansion, and with the current favorable outlook for storage demand, the semiconductor front-end equipment industry is expected to see improved market conditions [4]. Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - The Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, has made forward-looking predictions regarding the demand for new energy batteries in early 2026. He suggests that due to seasonal disruptions from the Spring Festival and a temporary weakening of downstream demand, lithium battery demand may experience a noticeable month-on-month decline. The production data indicates that the total planned production of lithium batteries (including energy storage, power, and consumer) in China for January 2026 is approximately 210 GWh, a 4.5% decrease month-on-month, while the global market's planned production is about 220 GWh, down 6.4%. However, this decline is attributed to seasonal and structural factors, and the overall industry outlook remains positive, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% in planned production for January [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector - Soulgate plans to submit its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the third time in November 2025. Tencent (holding 49.9%, not involved in daily operations) and miHoYo (holding 5.47%) are core shareholders. Since its launch in 2016, the Soul APP has attracted a large number of young users through its differentiated positioning of "soul socializing." The platform's average daily active users reached 10.96 million from January to August 2025, with an average of 20.1 launches per user per day and a 30-day user retention rate of 23%. The company has achieved a net profit since 2023, with steady revenue growth projected from 2022 to 2024, and a revenue of 1.683 billion yuan (up 17.82% year-on-year) for the first eight months of 2025, maintaining a gross margin above 80%. The integration of AI capabilities is expected to enhance user engagement and explore new business models in the social space [9].