日度策略参考-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock range and expected to remain strong in the short - term. The bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Different commodities in various industries show different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Categories Equity and Bond Markets - Stock Index: The stock index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - Aluminum: There has been inventory accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum recently, with limited industrial drivers. However, due to positive macro sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Alumina: The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. Alumina has rebounded from an oversold position, and the policy's sustainability should be monitored [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With the improvement of market risk appetite, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Nickel: The macro sentiment has warmed up. Indonesia's nickel ore premium in December remained stable. The planned RKAB nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be reduced to 2.5 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 34%), and nickel - associated minerals will be priced. The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently, and the short - term nickel price may be strong. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will remain in an oversupply situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: The market sentiment is high. Silver has accelerated its upward movement, and gold has risen steadily. The gold - silver ratio has fallen to the lowest level since 2013. The short - term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in silver [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly last Friday, which is expected to drive up the domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices of platinum and palladium have a large premium over the spot and overseas prices, so investors are advised to participate rationally [1]. - Industrial Silicon: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the energy storage demand is strong. The supply side has increased production, and the price has accelerated its rise in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The basis of the futures - spot spread and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The direct demand has weakened, the supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the official announcement of the steel export licensing system, the coking coal and coke prices rebounded quickly after opening lower, showing signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The high - frequency data has improved, but it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the production areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - Soybean Meal: The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious speculation driver in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing a pattern of strong near - month and weak far - month contracts [1]. - Corn: The progress of farmers' grain sales at the grass - roots level is relatively fast, and the inventory levels of ports and downstream are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports [1]. - Fuel Oil: It is affected by the same factors as crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - LPG: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of a fundamentally loose supply. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, and the inventory has no pressure. The PG futures price has maintained a range - bound movement after a supplementary decline [1].