油脂数据日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high-frequency data in Malaysia has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. It is expected that the market will continue to decline after a short-term rebound, waiting for the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders' purchases and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and avoid chasing high prices. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree Palm Oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8,650, 8,590, and 8,490 respectively, down 20 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of palm oil futures in South China was 5,000, 4,000, and 3,000 [1] - First-grade Soybean Oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8,250, 8,390, and 8,400 respectively compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9,880, 9,930, and 10,130 respectively, up 100 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of soybean oil futures in North China was 2,000, 1,500, and 1,000 [1] Futures Data - Soybean-Palm Oil Main Contract Spread: On December 29, 2025, it was -694, up 38 from December 26, 2025 [1] - Rapeseed-Soybean Main Contract Spread: On December 29, 2025, it was 1,222, up 12 from December 26, 2025 [1] - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 260, 28,264, and 3,456 respectively from December 26 to 29, 2025 [1] Industry News - Indonesia: On December 19, 2025, the Indonesian Energy Minister stated that the country had launched the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - Malaysia: MPOC expects the crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 3,800 and 4,100 ringgit per ton in January next year. According to MPOA, from December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, from December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; from December 1 - 20, exports increased by 2.4%; from December 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.9%. According to AmSpec, from December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - Brazil: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons [2] - USA: The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - India: According to SEA data, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% to 632,341 tons compared to October. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% to 370,661 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% to 142,953 tons, reaching a two - year low. The total edible oil imports in November decreased by 13.3% to 1.15 million tons, a seven - month low. In November, India imported 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China, a record high [2]