合成橡胶数据日报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market continued its upward trend on December 29, with upstream and downstream products in the industry chain strengthening simultaneously, driving up market sentiment. The supply - side price was raised, and some auctioned goods had high - premium transactions, leading to bullish expectations among merchants. Although some downstream players were still on the sidelines, low - priced products were hard to find in the short - term, and the trading center shifted higher [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 76.75% compared to the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber decreased to 251 yuan/ton. The market's focus was on the rising cost supported by the strong raw material market and the further squeezing of production profit in January. Most industry players expected the mainstream supply price to increase, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices [3]. - The strategy for operation: BR is expected to fluctuate in a bullish way; for arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Quotes - Domestic Futures: The closing price of BR2602.SHF was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-0.30%); the settlement price was 11,620 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.13%). The open interest was 59,203 lots, down 5,302 lots (-8.22%); the trading volume was 152,140 lots, down 43,930 lots (-22.41%). The warehouse receipt quantity was 23,490 tons, unchanged [3]. - Inter - month and Cross - month Spreads: The spread between the first and second contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-100.00%); the spread between the second and third contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-100.00%); the spread between the first and third contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-150.00%); the spread between the second and fourth contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [3]. - Cross - variety Spreads: The spread between BR and RU was 80 yuan/ton (1.93%); the spread between BR and NR was 55 yuan/ton (4.91%); the ratio of BR to 7.33*SC was 1.1582, down 0.12% [3]. - Crude Oil: WTI was at $58.40/barrel, down $0.07 (-0.12%); Brent was at $61.84/barrel, down $0.08 (-0.13%); SC was at 442 yuan/barrel, down 0.9 yuan (-0.20%) [3]. Market Prices - Butadiene Market Price: The delivered price in the central Shandong region was around 8,550 - 8,650 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,200 - 8,300 yuan/ton. The prices in Hangzhou, Jiangsu, Shandong, etc. all increased [3]. - Butadiene Factory Price: Sinopec East China raised the butadiene price by 200 yuan/ton to 8,300 yuan/ton. The prices of various factories such as Dalian Hengli, Yantai Wanhua, etc. also increased [3]. - Butadiene International Price: CFR China was at $900/ton, unchanged; CIF US was at $860/ton, unchanged; FD Northwest Europe was at $650/ton, unchanged; FOB Europe was at $620/ton, unchanged [3]. - Butadiene Rubber Market Price: The market prices in North China, East China, South China, etc. all increased. The trading center of Shandong private resources was around 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and there were still large price differences among brands [3]. - Butadiene Rubber Factory Price: The ex - factory prices of many factories such as Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. increased by 200 yuan/ton [3]. - Butadiene Rubber International Price: FOB China was at $1,425/ton, unchanged; CFR Northeast Asia was at $1,400/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was at $1,625/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Chain - Capacity Utilization and Production: The capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 76.75%, unchanged. The production volume was 3.08 million tons, up 0.02 million tons (0.67%) [3]. - Inventory: The trader inventory was 5,690 tons, down 720 tons (-11.23%); the commercial inventory was 27,600 tons, up 1,250 tons (4.53%) [3]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of butadiene rubber was 10,843 yuan/ton, up 309 yuan/ton (2.93%); the profit was 457 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-19.26%) [3]. - Price Spreads: The spread between high - cis and BR was 235 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton (43.93%); the spread between butadiene - styrene and BR was - 135 yuan/ton; the spread between Thai mixed and butadiene rubber was 3,480 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton (-5.95%); the spread between Thai standard and butadiene rubber was 2,134 yuan/ton, down 207 yuan/ton (-9.70%) [3].