沥青数据日报-20251230

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt spot market faces prominent supply pressure, with increased refinery production schedules. Both refinery and social inventories are in an accumulation state. Demand remains sluggish due to the off - season. Some southern refineries have lowered prices to boost sales, while prices in Shandong are relatively stable due to low inventory levels. Meanwhile, the main futures contract has slightly risen, with both long and short positions leaving the market. The net - short position pattern remains unchanged, and the intraday fluctuation range has narrowed, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. Overall, the current supply - demand contradiction in the asphalt market has not been improved, and the weakening of crude oil has reduced cost support. In the short term, the upward space of the futures is limited by the fundamentals, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Asphalt Market Data - Spot Market: In the East China region, the current price is 3000, the previous price was 3000 with a 0% increase; in the Northeast, the current price is 3410, the previous price was 3440 with a - 30 decrease; in the North China, the current price is 3010, the previous price was 3010 with a 0% increase; in the South, the current price is 2840, the previous price was 2800 with a 40 increase; in the Northwest, the current price is 3430, the previous price was 3430 with a 0% increase; in Shandong, the current price is 2920, the previous price was 2920 with a 0% increase [1]. - Futures Market: For the BU2601 contract, the current price is 2977, the previous price was 2969 with a 0.27% increase; for the BU2602 contract, the current price is 3008, the previous price was 2995 with a 0.43% increase [1]. 3.2 International News and Policy Expectations - US Policy on Venezuela: US officials have downplayed the possibility of military action against Venezuela and stated that the White House has ordered the US military to focus on oil blockades for at least the next two months. The US is prioritizing economic pressure through sanctions, believing that existing measures have put heavy pressure on the Maduro government. It has warned that Venezuela will face an economic disaster by the end of January if it does not make significant concessions [1]. - Russian Public Expectations on the Russia - Ukraine Conflict: A Russian national poll shows that most people expect the Ukraine conflict to end in 2026. Among 1600 respondents, 70% believe that Russia will be more successful in 2026, and 55% of the optimistic expectations are related to the end of the special military operation. This poll is considered a possible test by the Kremlin of public reaction to a peace agreement [2]. - Fed Interest Rate Policy Expectations: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%. By March, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is only 6.0%. The market has limited expectations for short - term rate cuts [2].