黑链指数日报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On December 24, the black metal futures showed a pattern of "range - bound oscillation under weak supply and demand". Rebar was supported by inventory depletion and supply contraction and oscillated strongly. Iron ore was under pressure due to high port inventory and weak demand. Coking coal and coke rebounded slightly due to winter storage replenishment expectations and cost support. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese maintained low - level oscillations due to loose supply and demand. There was a lack of short - term unilateral drivers, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and winter storage rhythm [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market - On December 24, the Black Chain Index opened at 112.33 points, oscillated upward during the session, reaching a maximum of 112.92 points and a minimum of 111.68 points, and finally closed at 112.66 points, up 0.3 points from the previous trading day. The total trading volume was 3.588 million lots, a decrease of 195,000 lots from the previous day. The total open interest dropped to 6.602 million lots, a decrease of 33,232 lots from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - On December 24, 2025, the black metal market showed an overall oscillating trend. Affected by the cold wave, demand weakened, but construction rush in some southern regions provided support. The trading atmosphere was average, futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and spot quotes were mainly stable. The change in basis reflected the divergence of market expectations [3] - The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Zhongtian Iron and Steel brand HRB400 Φ20 rebar in the Shanghai market was 3,290 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton in the Hangzhou market. The average price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in 24 major cities was 3,294 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of hot - rolled open - flat plates (Q235B 4.75×1500×6000) of Ansteel and Bengang brands in the Anshan market was 3,250 yuan/ton. Due to the decline in real estate and infrastructure demand and the impact of the cold wave, steel mills faced significant order - taking pressure, and prices were expected to be under pressure [5] - The price difference of 61% Fe between Caofeidian Port and Qingdao Port was 16 yuan/dry ton, and the price difference between Lianyungang and Qingdao Port was 0 yuan/dry ton, indicating stable regional price differences. The price difference between iron ore and rebar contracts 01 was 2,323 yuan/ton, with changes in arbitrage space [5] - The spot price of main coking coal (A＜10.5, S＜1.3, G＞80) in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 1,300 yuan/ton, the price of Kaijia No. 1 brand was 1,450 yuan/ton, and the medium - sulfur coking coal price index was 1,353.5 yuan/ton, all showing a slight downward trend [5] - The market price of 72% FeSi qualified blocks of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5,330 yuan/ton with intraday fluctuations. The market price of high - silicon silicomanganese (FeMn65Si25) was 6,200 yuan/ton, with a stable price. The price difference between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon contracts 01 was 264 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage opportunity narrowed. The basis between Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions was in the range of - 330 to - 240 yuan/ton, and the market information disturbances led to wide - range oscillations [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - The black metal futures on December 24 presented a "range - bound oscillation under weak supply and demand" pattern. Rebar oscillated strongly supported by inventory depletion and supply contraction, iron ore was under pressure due to high port inventory and weak demand, coking coal and coke rebounded slightly due to winter storage replenishment expectations and cost support, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese maintained low - level oscillations due to loose supply and demand. There was a lack of short - term unilateral drivers, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and winter storage rhythm [6]