股指：申万期货品种策略日报-20251230

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of further institutional improvements, renewed capital expansion, and continuous industrial empowerment, the long - term and steady bullish pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital protection, and industrial drive." The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December is likely to boost global capital flows and risk appetite, and continuous capital market reforms will further strengthen the foundation for the steady bull market. With the gradual implementation of the key meeting's tone in December, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut will resonate, potentially increasing market risk appetite again [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4574.00, 4555.60, 4531.00, and 4489.00 respectively, with increases of 29.80, 27.40, 28.00, and 29.60, and increases of 0.66%, 0.61%, 0.62%, and 0.66% respectively. The trading volumes were 74003.00, 8279.00, 35116.00, and 7056.00, and the open interests were 113155.00, 20301.00, 118268.00, and 31235.00, with changes in open interests of 1266.00, 3152.00, 8332.00, and 1133.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2986.80, 2980.00, 2979.80, and 2966.40 respectively, with increases of 21.20, 20.00, 22.80, and 22.20, and increases of 0.71%, 0.68%, 0.77%, and 0.75% respectively. The trading volumes were 32570.00, 3336.00, 15385.00, and 2310.00, and the open interests were 47489.00, 6153.00, 33343.00, and 10023.00, with changes in open interests of - 211.00, 704.00, 3314.00, and 60.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7223.60, 7174.40, 7133.20, and 6940.60 respectively, with increases of 3.20, 2.80, 3.20, and 5.00, and increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.07% respectively. The trading volumes were 28350.00, 2736.00, 53906.00, and 11102.00, and the open interests were 67344.00, 3282.00, 136107.00, and 49027.00, with changes in open interests of - 77.00, 56.00, - 2042.00, and 1039.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7361.80, 7286.20, 7119.80, and 6880.00 respectively, with increases of 49.40, 55.00, 52.80, and 56.80, and increases of 0.68%, 0.76%, 0.75%, and 0.83% respectively. The trading volumes were 126483.00, 16755.00, 56716.00, and 17722.00, and the open interests were 149811.00, 35293.00, 127987.00, and 65089.00, with changes in open interests of - 2749.00, 5989.00, 6429.00, and 154.00 [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month are - 18.40, - 6.80, - 49.20, and - 75.60 respectively, compared with previous values of - 16.80, - 7.20, - 49.80, and - 81.80 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index was 4620.73, with a trading volume of 169.26 billion lots and a total trading value of 4331.41 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.20% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the index was 3027.52, with a trading volume of 35.89 billion lots and a total trading value of 1104.70 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.24% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the index was 7256.79, with a trading volume of 173.48 billion lots and a total trading value of 3285.59 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.02% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the index was 7370.94, with a trading volume of 243.53 billion lots and a total trading value of 4227.79 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.81% compared to the value two days ago [1]. - CSI 300 Industry Index: Different industries in the CSI 300 had varying increases or decreases. For example, the energy industry decreased by 0.52%, while the raw materials industry increased by 0.94%, the industrial industry increased by 0.89%, and the optional consumption industry increased by 0.58%. Other industries also had their respective changes [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - CSI 300 Futures - Spot Basis: The previous values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were - 21.93, - 39.13, - 49.33, and - 99.53 respectively [1]. - SSE 50 Futures - Spot Basis: The previous values of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH far - quarter - SSE 50 were - 7.84, - 14.64, - 14.84, and - 28.24 respectively [1]. - CSI 500 Futures - Spot Basis: The previous values of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were 4.21, - 54.79, - 170.99, and - 374.39 respectively [1]. - CSI 1000 Futures - Spot Basis: The previous values of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far - quarter - CSI 1000 were - 49.42, - 127.62, - 195.02, and - 433.22 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Major Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3919.98, 13368.99, 8111.91, and 3205.01 respectively, with increases of 0.07%, 0.27%, 0.35%, and 0.41% respectively compared to the values two days ago [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25774.14, 50402.39, 6909.79, and 24340.06 respectively, with changes of - 0.11%, 1.81%, 0.46%, and 0.23% respectively compared to the values two days ago [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - Exchange Rate: On December 23, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 7.02 mark for the first time since October 2024, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 7.03 mark, up nearly 100 points. The weakening of the US dollar index and the release of year - end settlement demand are the main drivers for the RMB's rise [2]. - A - share Market: The total trading volume of A - shares this year has exceeded 400 trillion yuan for the first time in history. The annual average turnover rate is close to 1.74%, expected to reach a new high since 2016. Nineteen stocks have a trading volume of over one trillion yuan this year [2]. - Precious Metals: The prices of gold and silver have reached new historical highs. COMEX gold futures have broken through the $4510 mark, up more than 1%. COMEX silver futures have risen more than 4%, reaching a maximum of $71.79 per ounce. Platinum and palladium futures have risen 10% and 7% respectively. Since the beginning of this year, the gold price has risen more than 71%, and the silver price has risen about 147% [2]. - Government Policies: The President emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their main business, optimize the layout of the state - owned economy, enhance core functions and competitiveness, and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation. The Ministry of Transport expects that China will complete more than 3.6 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment this year, with more than 2000 kilometers of new high - speed railways and about 8000 kilometers of new highways added [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Real Estate: The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference has deployed key tasks for 2026, including local governments using their autonomy in real - estate regulation, adjusting and optimizing policies, and promoting the construction of a new real - estate development model [2]. - Photothermal Power Generation: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued an opinion aiming to reach a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts for photothermal power generation by 2030 [2]. - Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: As of the end of November, the total number of electric - vehicle charging facilities in China reached 19.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 52%. Among them, public charging facilities were 4.625 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.0%, and private charging facilities were 14.697 million, a year - on - year increase of 57.8% [2]. - Cultural Relics: The National Cultural Heritage Administration has attached great importance to the media reports about the "Jiangnan Spring" scroll from the Nanjing Museum appearing in the auction market and has sent a working group to Nanjing. The Jiangsu provincial government has also established an investigation team [2].