利率债年度复盘：2025：非典型震荡市

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 is an atypical volatile bond market. From the perspective of fund product net value and interest - rate bond yield changes, it is a bear market, while from the perspective of credit bonds, it is a bull market [3][6]. - There are four direct reasons for the poor experience in the bond market in 2025: the overdraft effect at the end of last year, less - than - expected monetary easing, intensified supervision, and increased risk appetite [3][9]. - There are four underlying macro - logical reasons: the after - effect of the "924" policy and broad fiscal support for economic stability, repeated Sino - US trade frictions but resilient exports, the continuation of Fed rate cuts and de - dollarization along with policies boosting the risk appetite of the stock and commodity markets, and profound changes in institutional behavior in a low - interest - rate environment [3][14]. - The bond market in 2025 is divided into four stages, with different driving factors and yield changes in each stage [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Four Direct Reasons and Macro - logical Reasons for the Atypical Volatile Market Direct Reasons - Overdraft effect at the end of last year: At the end of 2025, the expectation of broad monetary policy and the pre - emptive allocation before the New Year led to a "fast - bull" market. In late November 2025, the market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut increased, and the bond yield dropped rapidly after the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference [9]. - Less - than - expected monetary easing: The market expected significant interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts at the beginning of the year, but only one round of cuts occurred in May, and other tools were used to maintain liquidity [9][10]. - Intensified supervision: In early August, the government announced the resumption of VAT on new government and financial bonds, and in September, a draft of new regulations on public funds was released, increasing the redemption fee and causing concerns in the market [10]. - Increased risk appetite and the stock - bond seesaw: After the reciprocal tariffs, expectations of domestic policy stimulus, tariff cuts, a weakening US dollar, and other factors led to an increase in risk assets. The implementation of anti - involution policies also boosted the commodity market [10]. Macro - logical Reasons - Policy support for economic stability: The "924" policy in 2024 and broad fiscal measures supported economic stability, with the GDP in the first half of 2025 growing by 5.3% year - on - year [14]. - Resilient exports despite trade frictions: Sino - US trade frictions had two unexpected turns, but China's exports remained resilient, and the bond market's reaction to trade frictions gradually became dull [14]. - Boosted risk appetite: Fed rate cuts, de - dollarization, and domestic policies such as the anti - involution policy and the development of the AI industry increased the risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets [19]. - Changed institutional behavior: In a low - interest - rate environment, the enthusiasm of institutional investors for bond investment decreased, and the market's cautious attitude restricted the downward space for interest rates [22]. 2. Four - stage Review of the 2025 Bond Market Stage One (January 1 - March 17) - The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.6% to 1.9%. The market mainly traded around the correction of the broad - money expectation, with many negative factors such as Sino - US trade issues, a tech boom, and tightened liquidity [28]. Stage Two (March 18 - June 30) - The 10 - year Treasury yield first dropped significantly and then fluctuated, ranging from 1.6% to 1.9%. The market focused on the loosening of liquidity and Sino - US trade frictions, and the impact of trade frictions gradually weakened [34]. Stage Three (July 1 - September 30) - The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.6% to around 1.9%. The market was mainly affected by the anti - involution policy, a booming equity market, and strict regulations [42]. Stage Four (October 1 - Present) - The 10 - year Treasury yield fluctuated weakly in the range of 1.8% - 1.85%. The bond market was insensitive to trade frictions, and the expectation of monetary easing was not strong [48].