信用债周报：成交规模继续增长，信用利差分化-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors during the period from December 22 to December 28, 2025, showed a differentiated trend, with most high - grade rates declining and most medium - and low - grade rates rising, with an overall change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP [1][15][63]. - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous period. Corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds and private placement notes decreased, while the issuance amounts of medium - term notes and commercial paper increased. The net financing of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous period [1][13][63]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes increased, while the trading volume of commercial paper decreased [1][19][63]. - The yields of most credit bonds declined during this period. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds were differentiated, with most 1 - year and 7 - year spreads widening and most 3 - year and 5 - year spreads narrowing [1][22][63]. - From the perspective of absolute return, the shortage of supply and relatively strong allocation demand will promote the continued recovery of credit bonds. In the long run, the yields are still in a downward channel, and the idea of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. From the perspective of relative return, although the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient, the probability of unilateral callback in the short term is also small. Therefore, it is still possible to achieve the coupon strategy through credit downgrade and extending the duration [1][63]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, a total of 211 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 254.432 billion yuan, a 2.51% decrease compared with the previous period. The net financing of credit bonds was 42.433 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.343 billion yuan compared with the previous period [13]. - Corporate bonds had zero issuance, with a net financing of - 6.252 billion yuan, an increase of 0.498 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Corporate bonds issued 74 bonds, with an issuance amount of 49.363 billion yuan, a 46.55% decrease compared with the previous period, and a net financing of 15.757 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.511 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Medium - term notes issued 66 bonds, with an issuance amount of 109.469 billion yuan, a 30.15% increase compared with the previous period, and a net financing of 78.532 billion yuan, an increase of 37.169 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Commercial paper issued 60 bonds, with an issuance amount of 90.117 billion yuan, a 23.36% increase compared with the previous period, and a net financing of - 44.152 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.187 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Private placement notes issued 11 bonds, with an issuance amount of 5.483 billion yuan, a 52.24% decrease compared with the previous period, and a net financing of - 1.452 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.312 billion yuan compared with the previous period [13]. 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors were differentiated, with most high - grade rates declining and most medium - and low - grade rates rising, with an overall change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP. By tenor, the 1 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 2 BP to 0 BP, the 3 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP, the 5 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP, and the 7 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 2 BP to 1 BP. By grade, the key AAA - grade and AAA - grade varieties had an interest rate change range of - 3 BP to - 1 BP, the AA + - grade variety had an interest rate change range of - 1 BP to 2 BP, the AA - grade variety had an interest rate change range of 0 BP to 2 BP, and the AA - - grade variety had an interest rate change range of 0 BP to 1 BP [15]. 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.030617 trillion yuan, a 7.72% increase compared with the previous period. Corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes traded 28.754 billion yuan, 446.075 billion yuan, 347.636 billion yuan, 145.597 billion yuan, and 62.555 billion yuan respectively [19]. 2.2 Credit Spreads - In medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year credit spreads widened; among the 3 - year notes, the credit spreads of AA - grade and AA - - grade widened, while the spreads of AAA - grade and AA + - grade narrowed; the 5 - year credit spreads narrowed; among the 7 - year notes, the credit spread of AAA - grade narrowed, while the spread of AA + - grade widened [22]. - In corporate bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year AAA - grade credit spread narrowed, while the spreads of other varieties widened; among the 3 - year notes, the credit spreads of AAA - grade and AA + - grade narrowed, while the spreads of AA - grade and AA - - grade widened; the 5 - year credit spreads narrowed; among the 7 - year notes, the credit spread of AAA - grade narrowed, while the spreads of other varieties widened [27]. - In urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year credit spreads widened; the 3 - year credit spreads narrowed; among the 5 - year notes, the credit spreads of AAA - grade and AA + - grade narrowed, while the spreads of AA - grade and AA - - grade widened; among the 7 - year notes, the credit spread of AAA - grade narrowed, while the spreads of other varieties widened [37]. 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 1.20 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread narrowed by 3.20 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 3.22 BP. The 3Y - 1Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (21.6%), the 5Y - 3Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (34.5%), and the 7Y - 3Y term spread was at a historical median (41.9%). In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year medium - and short - term notes widened by 3.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 3.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP [47]. - For AA + corporate bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 3.69 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 3.12 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 8.55 BP. The 3Y - 1Y term spread was at a historical low (12.2%), the 5Y - 3Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (36.3%), and the 7Y - 3Y term spread was at a historical median (42.9%). In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year corporate bonds widened by 6.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 6.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged from the previous period [52]. - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.72 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread narrowed by 1.67 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.25 BP. The 3Y - 1Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (20.3%), the 5Y - 3Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (31.2%), and the 7Y - 3Y term spread was at a historical median (46.8%). In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year urban investment bonds narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged from the previous period [54]. 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, a total of 2 companies had their ratings (including outlooks) adjusted, both of which were upgrades. They were Wenzhou Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd. [60]. 3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - There were no credit bond defaults during the period from December 22 to December 28, 2025. One issuer, Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd., had its credit bonds extended, namely "18 Bojin 03" and "18 Bozu 05", with a total bond balance of 823 million yuan at the time of extension [62]. 4. Investment Viewpoints - The overall idea is to continue to be optimistic about the credit bond market in the long term, but pay attention to short - term fluctuations. In terms of configuration, the coupon strategy can be moderately optimistic, and the trading strategy can be kept optimistic. When selecting bonds, focus on the trend of interest - rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds. At the same time, it is possible to achieve the coupon strategy through credit downgrade and extending the duration according to one's own capital characteristics, but pay attention to the rhythm [1][63].