瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price maintains high - level oscillation. Suggest light - position short - term long trading when the price is low, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,565.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,751.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,950.50 US dollars/ton, down 6.00 US dollars [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 105.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; that of alumina is - 125.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 267,707.00 hands, down 21,548.00 hands; those of alumina are 404,205.00 hands, up 7,530.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network A00 aluminum price is 22,180.00 yuan/ton, down 310.00 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals is 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 22,400.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market AOO aluminum price is 22,550.00 yuan/ton, down 380.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output is 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China is 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity is 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the production capacity utilization rate of alumina is 86.51%, down 0.45% [2] - The import quantity of primary aluminum is 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity is 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products is 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy is 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of 20 - day Shanghai aluminum is 12.69%, up 0.01%; the historical volatility of 40 - day Shanghai aluminum is 11.57%, down 0.15% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 22.36%, up 0.0391%; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.77, down 0.1616 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation deploys key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance and strengthening of anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement [2] - The National Energy Administration holds a symposium on promoting the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, aiming to achieve the "three - year doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [2] - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, says that the growth of the 2026 car market is complex, with a positive growth in January expected and greater pressure in February [2] - US President Trump says he will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman at an appropriate time, criticizes the Fed Chairman Powell, and is considering suing him [2]