BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-12-30 08:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [5][6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to the implementation of stable growth policies and an anticipated increase in demand from shipbuilding and construction sectors. The focus on "equipment upgrades" and "low-carbon transformation" is expected to drive industry development [3][5]. - In the copper sector, global copper supply is projected to tighten further due to incidents at major mines, providing support for copper prices. Demand is expected to increase as major economies enter a rate-cutting cycle, enhancing the industry's outlook [3][5]. - The aluminum sector is facing a supply surplus, with stable supply conditions and weak demand expected to keep prices under pressure in the short term. However, the industry is anticipated to benefit from improved profitability as the "anti-involution" policy takes effect [5][6]. - Gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. economic data, with long-term trends favoring gold due to central bank purchases and the weakening of the U.S. dollar [5][6]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades, with significant demand growth anticipated from robotics and new energy sectors [5][6]. - The cobalt market is expected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand driven by electric vehicles and consumer electronics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, with limited improvement expected. Steel inventory pressures may accumulate further as demand weakens [2][3][16]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total steel inventory was 12.58 million tons, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous week but an increase of 12.07% year-on-year [24][25]. - The average price of steel on December 26 was 3,439.15 CNY per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.28% from the previous week [31][32]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a seasonal demand slowdown, with high prices suppressing downstream demand. Supply is expected to contract as the year ends, leading to weaker price drivers in the short term [4][34]. - On December 26, the price of copper was 98,000 CNY per ton, an increase of 5.79% from the previous week [38]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is characterized by stable supply and weak demand, with prices expected to remain under pressure. The average price of aluminum on December 26 was 22,000 CNY per ton, a 0.92% increase from the previous week [42]. Gold Industry - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are key factors influencing gold prices, which are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term. On December 26, gold prices were 4,562.00 USD per ounce, up 4.42% from the previous week [47]. Rare Earth and Cobalt Industries - The rare earth sector is poised for growth due to strategic importance and demand from emerging technologies. The cobalt market is expected to remain tight, driven by electric vehicle demand [5][6].