瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply is relatively abundant, and some winter demand expectations are weak, which is not conducive to the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventory is expected to increase overall. The methanol port inventory increased significantly last week, mainly in Jiangsu. The import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2180 - 2250 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2219 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 58 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 27 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 814,284 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 40,426 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 85,919 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 44,156 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,648, with no change [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 49 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 252 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, with no change. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 255 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 68 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.66 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.73 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 20.77 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.52 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 11.97 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.79 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 404,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12,900 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.24%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.72% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.09%, with no change. The operating rate of acetic acid is 77.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.08%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.26%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.25%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 127 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.33%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.25%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.01%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.68%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.68%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91% [2] Industry News - As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16%. As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 19,370 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44% [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2]