瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but recent market volatility has increased, and there is a need to be cautious about correction risks. This week, opportunities for gold - silver ratio repair can be monitored. In the short term, the oscillatory correction trend may continue, but strong dip - buying demand provides some bottom support. The upper resistance for London gold is at $4500 per ounce, and the lower support is at $4300 per ounce. For London silver, the upper resistance is at $80 per ounce, and the lower support is at $70 per ounce. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 984.840 yuan/gram, down 22.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18107 yuan/kg, down 94.00 yuan. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 144,462.00 lots, down 21,562.00 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 4,164.00 lots, down 1,506.00 lots. - Volumes: The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 391,541.00 lots, up 46,319.00 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 2,059,507.00 lots, up 616,702.00 lots. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, down 40,985 kg. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 981.91 yuan/gram, down 22.09 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 17,668.00 yuan, down 1,432.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 2.93 yuan/gram, up 0.25 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 439.00 yuan/gram, down 1,338.00 yuan. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,071.99 tons, up 0.86 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,305.96 tons, down 84.60 tons. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 233,978.00 contracts, up 10,092.00 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 36,352.00 contracts, down 8,357.00 contracts. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. [1] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.01, down 0.03; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90, down 0.01. The VIX volatility index was 14.20, up 0.60; the CBOE gold volatility index was 0.04, up 0.04. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.59; the gold - silver ratio was 58.11, down 5.69. [1] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Both sides said the talks were fruitful but no major announcements were made. Trump said they discussed many topics and were close to an agreement, while Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue was difficult and should be decided by the Ukrainian people. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting showed that many members thought Japan's real interest rate was still very low, hinting at continued interest rate hikes in the future. One member suggested adjusting policies at intervals of "several months". - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9%. [1] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, the year - on - year US FHFA house price index; on January 1, 2026, at 21:45, the US Markit manufacturing PMI. [1]