黄金周报（2025.12.22-2025.12.28）：流动性宽松预期下，上周金价加速上涨-20251230

Group 1: Core Views - Market liquidity easing expectations led to an accelerated rise in gold prices last week. On December 26, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 3.71% to 1016.30 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 4.42% to 4562.00 US dollars/ounce. Spot gold prices also increased. The rise was due to Trump's statement and dovish remarks from a potential Fed chair candidate, geopolitical tensions, and reduced market liquidity during the Christmas holiday. This week, gold prices are expected to fluctuate and correct due to profit-taking, margin adjustments, etc. However, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [3]. Group 2: Last Week's Market Review 1. Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements - On December 26, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 1016.30 yuan/gram, up 36.40 yuan/gram from the previous week; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 4562.00 US dollars/ounce, up 193.30 US dollars/ounce. Gold T+D spot price closed at 1008.80 yuan/gram, up 32.98 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 4532.51 US dollars/ounce, up 191.45 US dollars/ounce [4]. 2. Gold Basis - On December 26, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 96.80 US dollars/ounce, down 80.40 US dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was - 2.06 yuan/gram, up 0.36 yuan/gram from the previous week [8]. 3. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Last week, the foreign gold price increase was more significant than the domestic one. The domestic - foreign price difference was - 53.82 yuan/gram on December 26, down from - 41.09 yuan/gram the previous week. The gold - oil ratio continued to rise, the gold - silver ratio continued to fall, and the gold - copper ratio continued to decline [9]. 4. Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. As of December 26, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1071.13 tons, up 18.59 tons. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D increased significantly, but decreased 5.44% from the previous week. In terms of futures positions, as of December 16, the net long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions continued to rise. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to rise, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 5976 kilograms to 97692 kilograms [14]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Fundamentals 1. Important Economic Data - The preliminary data of the US Q3 GDP showed an annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate of 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% but lower than the previous 3.8%. The core PCE price index was 2.9%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous 2.6%. Consumer spending increased by 3.5%, while non - residential investment growth slowed and residential investment declined. In October, US durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, but core durable goods orders increased for the seventh consecutive month. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 20 decreased to 214,000 [19][20][21]. 2. Fed Policy Tracking - 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack said there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months and questioned the accuracy of November inflation data. New York Fed President Williams also said there is no urgency to further cut interest rates [33]. 3. US Dollar Index Movement - Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, dropping 0.69% to 98.03 as of December 26 due to the Christmas holiday and continued market easing expectations [34]. 4. US TIPS Yield Movement - Last week, the US 10 - year TIPS yield decreased slightly by 1bp to 1.91% due to continued market expectations of liquidity easing [38]. 5. International Important Event Tracking - There was significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. Trump said the talks with Zelensky on December 28 made "great progress", and Zelensky said 90% of the peace framework was agreed upon [41].