镍年报

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure. The surplus is concentrated in low - cost deliverable goods, which may force nickel prices to seek support from the wet - process cost. There are risks such as Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy and the potential change of the Russian nickel inventory status. The trading logic is that there may be a catch - up opportunity in the first half of the year if the macro and industrial factors resonate, but considering the significant annual surplus, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [5][100]. - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a higher bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price's oscillation center moved down after the trade - war and hit a 5 - year low in December, then rebounded due to Indonesia's policy. The price difference between the highest and lowest points in the year was about 20%, and the volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by Indonesia's nickel - iron cost, showing a narrow - range oscillation due to weak terminal demand [4][10]. - In the first quarter, the market speculated on Indonesia and the Philippines' nickel ore policies, driving up nickel prices. After the policies were implemented and some restrictions were lifted, the market sentiment eased. After the US announced reciprocal tariffs in early April, nickel prices dropped by over 10%, then recovered. From May, new nickel production capacity was continuously released, but inventory accumulation was slow due to inventory invisibility. In October, nickel inventory started to accumulate rapidly, and in November, short - selling funds entered the market, driving nickel prices to a 5 - year low. In December, Indonesia's plan to tighten the nickel ore quota in 2026 and the overall rise of the non - ferrous metal sector led to a rebound in nickel prices [10][11]. Excess Concentration in Low - Cost Deliverable Goods, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risk - Supply Growth Concentrated in Wet - Process Lines, Fire - Process Almost Stagnant - In 2025, the highest - growth segment in primary nickel supply was Indonesia's NPI production, but due to tightened fire - process smelting in Indonesia and the sluggish stainless - steel market, NPI growth was limited. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to be only 2.4%. Sulfuric - nickel production is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2026, and refined nickel demand, which can be used for perpetual warehouse receipts and has certain financial attributes, is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2026, becoming the highest - growth category [19]. - Refined Nickel Growth at Home and Abroad: In 2026, new production capacity in China and Indonesia will be put into operation as planned, with a total of 116,000 tons of new capacity from several companies. Some overseas enterprises will also expand production. In 2025, the estimated refined - nickel production increased by 5.7% to 1.084 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to increase by 6.8% to 1.157 million tons [20]. - MHP Capacity Expansion in line with New Energy Trends: Due to the depletion of high - grade nickel ore reserves and the Indonesian government's preference for wet - process smelting, MHP capacity is expanding. In 2025, Indonesia's estimated MHP production was about 445,000 tons, and in 2026, it is conservatively expected to grow by 28% to 570,000 tons. In contrast, the ice - nickel capacity increase in 2026 is only 83,000 tons. China's sulfuric - nickel production is expected to grow by 12.7% to 400,000 tons in 2026 [28][34]. - NPI Growth Stagnant: In 2025, Indonesia's NPI production increased by 22.6% to 1.8602 million tons, but in 2026, it is expected to grow by only 2.4% to around 1.9 million tons. China's NPI capacity has basically reached a low point, and the decline will narrow in 2026. The total NPI production in China and Indonesia is expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.166 million tons in 2026 [37]. - Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risk Needs Attention - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. Since 2024, the quarterly nickel ore quota approval has led to tight supply, and the nickel ore price in March is often prone to rise. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the 2025 level and the expected demand. However, there is flexibility in the quota adjustment, and if the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase production costs and may support the bottom of nickel prices [48][51]. Demand Hard to Find a Driver, Potential Bright Spots Exist - Economic Growth Slows, Interest - Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metal Sector - In 2025, the global economic growth slowed, and it is expected to further slow to 3.1% in 2026. China's investment and real - estate sectors are weak, and the economy is still at the bottom. Although the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026, which is beneficial for the financial attributes of non - ferrous metals, the overall economic environment has many concerns [61]. - Stainless - Steel Supply - Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Rise - Stainless - Steel Demand Growth Moderate: In 2026, China's domestic stainless - steel demand is expected to grow by 4% due to factors such as the real - estate cycle at the bottom and the continuation of consumer subsidies. Exports are expected to decline by 8% due to overseas "double - anti" policies and other factors [66][67]. - Limited New Stainless - Steel Production Capacity, Output Adjusted by Profit: In 2026, new stainless - steel production capacity is limited. Nickel and chromium raw material prices may rise due to policy factors, which will increase stainless - steel costs. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it will suppress production capacity utilization [70][73]. - Ternary - Battery Proportion Stabilizes, New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points - New - Energy Vehicle Market Growth Slows: In the domestic market, the new - energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2026 has both positive and negative effects, and the sales growth rate is expected to reach 16% to 1.78 million vehicles. In the overseas market, the US new - energy vehicle market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth, and the global new - energy passenger - vehicle sales are expected to grow by 14% to 2.41 million vehicles in 2026 [81][86]. - Ternary - Battery Proportion Drops below 20%, New Productivity as Potential Growth Points: In the first 11 months of 2025, the proportion of ternary - battery loading in China's power - battery market dropped below 20%. In the future, the ternary - battery market needs high - nickel materials to break through, but it faces technical challenges. It may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [90][96]. Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - Macroscopically, the loose monetary environment benefits the financial attributes of non - ferrous metals, but the economic environment has many concerns. Industrially, in 2025, the primary nickel surplus was 277,000 tons, and in 2026, it is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota. The refined - nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons, increasing inventory pressure. There are potential short - term upward risks, and there may be a catch - up opportunity in the first half of the year. Considering the annual surplus, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [100].