Dongguan Securities·2025-12-30 09:18Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upcycle driven by AI, with global semiconductor revenue expected to reach approximately $975.46 billion in 2026, a 26.3% increase from 2025 [12][16] - Memory chips, particularly DRAM and NAND, are projected to be the core drivers of this cycle, with memory chip sales expected to grow by 27.8% in 2025 and 39.4% in 2026 [14][18] - The demand structure for memory chips is shifting from consumer electronics to dual drivers of "smart cars and data centers," with the automotive storage market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 21% from 2024 to 2030 [21][24] Group 2 - China's semiconductor equipment spending is expected to lead globally, with a projected $94 billion in spending from 2026 to 2028, accounting for 25% of global spending [50][54] - The demand for etching and thin film deposition equipment is expected to rise significantly as the industry transitions to 3D NAND technology, which reduces reliance on photolithography [61][66] - Lam Research indicates that the serviceable market for equipment per wafer for 3D DRAM and NAND will increase to 1.7 times and 1.8 times, respectively, compared to previous technologies [66]